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A Note of Caution on the Relation Between Money Growth and Inflation

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  • Mr. Helge Berger
  • Sune Karlsson
  • Pär Österholm

Abstract

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect of money growth on inflation weakened notably after the 1980s before strengthening after 2020. There is evidence that this time variation is related to the pace of price changes, as we find that the maximum impact of money growth on inflation is increasing in the trend level of inflation. These results caution against asserting a simple, time-invariant relationship when modeling the joint dynamics of monetary aggregates and consumer prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Helge Berger & Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "A Note of Caution on the Relation Between Money Growth and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2023/137, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/137
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mervyn King, 2022. "Monetary policy in a world of radical uncertainty," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 2-12, February.
    2. Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2023. "Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 57(3), pages 531-550, September.
    4. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, June.
    5. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric, 2018. "Comparing hybrid time-varying parameter VARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-5.
    6. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "A hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR analysis of Okun’s law in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    7. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2014. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-312.
    8. repec:bre:wpaper:45602 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Anil Ari & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados & Mr. Victor Mylonas & Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Wei Zhao, 2023. "One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2023/190, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; Time-varying parameters; Stochastic volatility; money growth; Euro area inflation; inflation response; trend inflation; response of shock; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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