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The great inflation, limited asset markets participation and aggregate demand: FED policy was better than you think

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  • Bilbiie, Florin O.

Abstract

When enough agents do not participate in asset markets, the slope of the aggregate demand curve is reversed. Monetary policy should be passive, to ensure equilibrium determinacy and to minimize variations in output and inflation. This paper presents evidence that asset markets participation in the US was limited over the Great Inflation period and the slope of the IS curve had the 'wrong' sign. Our results may help explain the 'Great Inflation' and give optimism for FED policy. If the economy was characterized by a relatively higher degree of financial frictions over that period: (i) policy implied a determinate equilibrium and ruled out sunspot fluctuations; (ii) policy was closer to optimal than conventional wisdom dictates; (iii) responses and variability of macroeconomic variables conditional upon fundamental shocks are close to their estimated counterparts for a wide range of reasonable parameterizations. Notably, 'cost-push' shocks are enough to generate a Great Inflation. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E44, E58, E65

Suggested Citation

  • Bilbiie, Florin O., 2004. "The great inflation, limited asset markets participation and aggregate demand: FED policy was better than you think," Working Paper Series 408, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004408
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp408.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Landon-Lane, John & Occhino, Filippo, 2008. "Bayesian estimation and evaluation of the segmented markets friction in equilibrium monetary models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 444-461, March.
    2. Camelia Ioana Ucenic & Laura Bacali, 2008. "The Impact of the Advance of SME's for the Romanian Economy," Working Papers 0804, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    3. Dibartolomeo, Giovanni & Rossi, Lorenza & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2004. "Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison," MPRA Paper 1094, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
    4. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Lorenza Rossi, 2007. "Heterogeneous Consumers, Demand Regimes, Monetary Policy and Equilibrium Determinacy," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(5), pages 111-142, September.
    5. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Manzo Marco, 2007. "Do tax distortions lead to more indeterminacy? A New Keynesian perspective," wp.comunite 0013, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    6. Florin Bilbiie, 2005. "Limited Asset Markets Participation, Monetary Policy and (Inverted) Keynesian Logic," Economics Papers 2005-W09, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    7. John Landon-Lane & Filippo Occhino, 2005. "Estimation and Evaluation of a Segmented Markets Monetary Model," Departmental Working Papers 200505, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    8. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Lorenza Rossi, 2007. "Effectiveness of monetary policy and limited asset market participation: Neoclassical versus Keynesian effects," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 3(3), pages 213-218, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    limited asset markets participation; monetary policy rules; real (in)determinacy; Taylor Principle; the Great Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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