IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v32y2010i4p968-981.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global slack and domestic inflation rates: A structural investigation for G-7 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Milani, Fabio

Abstract

Recent papers have argued that one implication of globalization is that domestic inflation rates may have now become more a function of "global", rather than domestic, economic conditions, as postulated by closed-economy Phillips curves. This paper aims to assess the empirical importance of global output in determining domestic inflation rates by estimating a structural model for a sample of G-7 economies. The model can capture the potential effects of global output fluctuations on both the aggregate supply and the aggregate demand relations in the economy and it is estimated using full-information Bayesian methods. The empirical results reveal a significant effect of global output on aggregate demand in most countries. Through this channel, global economic conditions can indirectly affect inflation. The results, instead, do not seem to provide evidence in favor of altering domestic Phillips curves to include global slack as an additional driving variable for inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Global slack and domestic inflation rates: A structural investigation for G-7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 968-981, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:32:y:2010:i:4:p:968-981
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164-0704(10)00027-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    2. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    3. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2006. "Designing targeting rules for international monetary policy cooperation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 473-506, April.
    4. Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust & J. David López-Salido, 2010. "International Competition and Inflation: A New Keynesian Perspective," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 247-280, October.
    5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
    6. Argia M. Sbordone, 2007. "Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: The Impact of Increased Competition," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 547-579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Milani, Fabio, 2009. "Does global slack matter more than domestic slack in determining U.S. inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 147-151, March.
    8. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    9. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 479-489, March.
    10. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    11. Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani, 2005. "Globalization and Inflation-Output Tradeoffs," NBER Working Papers 11641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    13. ., 1998. "Global North-South Models," Chapters, in: Heinz D. Kurz & Neri Salvadori (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Classical Economics, volume 0, chapter 62, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    15. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2002. "The 'New Keynesian' Phillips curve: closed economy versus open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 1-9, March.
    17. Gamber, Edward N & Hung, Juann H, 2001. "Has the Rise in Globalization Reduced U.S. Inflation in the 1990s?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 58-73, January.
    18. Assaf Razin & Alon Binyamini, 2007. "Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy: Outcome of Globalization?," NBER Working Papers 13280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Günter Coenen & Giovanni Lombardo & Frank Smets & Roland Straub, 2007. "International Transmission and Monetary Policy Cooperation," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 157-192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani, 2005. "Globalization and Equilibrium Inflation-Output Tradeoffs," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 171-192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Hagen, Jurgen von & Fratianni, Michele, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 358-375, December.
    22. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    23. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, August.
    24. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-2126, December.
    25. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
    26. Michael Woodford, 2007. "Globalization and Monetary Control," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 13-77, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Calza, Alessandro, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 890, European Central Bank.
    28. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 923-936, November.
    29. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    30. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 947-981, July.
    31. Unknown, 1998. "Grain Market Reform in China: Global Implications," Technical Reports 113816, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.
    32. Genevieve R. Solomon & Mark A. Wynne, 2007. "Obstacles to measuring global output gaps," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 2(3), March.
    33. Erasmus K. Kersting & Mark A. Wynne, 2007. "Openness and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    34. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
    35. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    36. Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1998. "Globalization and U.S. inflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 21-33.
    37. repec:fip:feddsp:y:2005:i:nov3 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Alon Binyamini & Assaf Razin, 2007. "Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy as an Equilibrium Outcome of Globalization," Working Papers 232007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    39. Donald L. Kohn, 2006. "The effects of globalization on inflation and their implications for monetary policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    40. Jane E. Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah J. Lindner & Jaime R. Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    41. Jordi Galí & Mark J. Gertler, 2010. "International Dimensions of Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gert07-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    2. Fabio Milani, 2009. "The Effect of Global Output on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Structural Estimation," Working Papers 080920, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    3. Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Milani, Fabio, 2012. "Has Globalization Transformed U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 204-229, April.
    5. Milani, Fabio, 2009. "Does global slack matter more than domestic slack in determining U.S. inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 147-151, March.
    6. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1340-1356, November.
    7. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    8. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    9. Martin T. Bohl & David G. Mayes & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "The Quality Of Monetary Policy And Inflation Performance: Globalization And Its Aftermath," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 617-645, June.
    10. Martin T. Bohl & David G. Mayes & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "The Quality Of Monetary Policy And Inflation Performance: Globalization And Its Aftermath," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 617-645, June.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_031 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Alessandro Calza, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and the global output gaps: evidence from the Euro era," Globalization Institute Working Papers 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 220-239, June.
    15. Eugenio Gaiotti, 2008. "Has globalisation changed the Phillips curve? Firm-level evidence on the effect of activity on prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 676, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Chatterjee, Arpita, 2016. "Globalization and monetary policy comovement: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 181-202.
    17. Calza, Alessandro, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 890, European Central Bank.
    18. Syed Kanwar Abbas, 2018. "Global slack hypothesis: evidence from China, India and Pakistan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 593-627, March.
    19. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globalization Global slack Inflation dynamics Phillips curve Bayesian estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:32:y:2010:i:4:p:968-981. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.