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Trend growth expectations and US house prices before and after the crisis

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  • Hoffmann, Mathias
  • Krause, Michael U.
  • Laubach, Thomas

Abstract

We provide an analysis that might help distinguish rationally justified movements in house prices from potentially non-rational movements, using a two-sector business cycle model, in which investment in housing is subject to collateral constraints. A large portion of the evolution of U.S. house prices during the past 20 years can be reproduced when expectations of future income growth as published in surveys are used as an input into the model. Changes in growth expectations translate into corresponding changes in house prices, since the value of housing must be linked to expected aggregate income. Only since about 2005 do actual and model-implied house prices clearly diverge, calling for explanations not based on economic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2012. "Trend growth expectations and US house prices before and after the crisis," Discussion Papers 12/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:122012
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuang, Pei, 2014. "A model of housing and credit cycles with imperfect market knowledge," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 419-437.
    2. Juan Equiza Goni, 2014. "Sovereign Debt in the U.S. and Growth Expectations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-25, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Alexander N. Bogin & Stephen D. Bruestle & William M. Doerner, 2017. "How Low Can House Prices Go? Estimating a Conservative Lower Bound," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 97-116, January.
    4. Herrmann, Sabine & Kleinert, Jörn, 2014. "Lucas paradox and allocation puzzle: Is the euro area different?," Discussion Papers 06/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Michal Jurek & Pawel Marszalek, 2014. "Subprime mortgages and the MBSs in generating and transmitting the global financial crisis," Working papers wpaper40, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    6. Kajuth, Florian, 2020. "The German housing market cycle: Answers to FAQs," Discussion Papers 20/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Olivier Mesly & David W. Shanafelt & Nicolas Huck & François‐Éric Racicot, 2020. "From wheel of fortune to wheel of misfortune: Financial crises, cycles, and consumer predation," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 1195-1212, December.
    8. Tianhao Zhi & Zhongfei Li & Zhiqiang Jiang & Lijian Wei & Didier Sornette, 2018. "Is there a housing bubble in China," Papers 1801.03678, arXiv.org.
    9. repec:grz:wpaper:2014-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Pei Kuang, 2013. "Imperfect Knowledge about Asset Prices and Credit Cycles," CDMA Working Paper Series 201303, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    11. Huck, Nicolas & Mavoori, Hareesh & Mesly, Olivier, 2020. "The rationality of irrationality in times of financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 337-350.
    12. Olivier Mesly & Hareesh Mavoori & Nicolas Huck, 2023. "The Role of Financial Spinning, Learning, and Predation in Market Failure," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 517-543, March.
    13. Pei Kuang, 2013. "Imperfect Knowledge About Asset Prices and Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 13-02r, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    14. Kajuth, Florian, 2021. "Land leverage and the housing market: Evidence from Germany1," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. John Fry & Andrew Brint, 2017. "Bubbles, Blind-Spots and Brexit," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-15, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; trend growth; Kalman filter; real-time data; borrowing constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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