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The Time-Varying Impact of External Shocks on the Consumer Price Components: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Author

Listed:
  • Abdurrahman Nazif Çatik

    (Ege University)

  • Mehmet Karaçuka

    (Ege University)

  • A. Özlem Önder

    (Ege University)

Abstract

This article aims to assess the extent of oil price and exchange rate pass-through into disaggregated consumer prices in Turkey in a time-varying framework. For this purpose, pass-through coefficients are computed based on the TVP-VAR model with stochastic volatility by Primiceri (Rev Econ Stud 72:821–852, 2005). The results suggest that (a) oil prices have a significant impact on wholesale and consumer prices; (b) the responses follow a time-varying pattern and differ markedly across the subcomponents of consumer prices, i.e., consumer energy prices, transportation, clothing and footwear, food, beverages and tobacco, and housing are more sensitive to the changes in oil prices; (c) the impact of the exchange rate is found to be more significant and higher compared to that of oil prices; and (d) oil pass-through coefficients have declined remarkably after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, whereas remarkable increases have been observed in the exchange rate pass-through coefficients since that time.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdurrahman Nazif Çatik & Mehmet Karaçuka & A. Özlem Önder, 2022. "The Time-Varying Impact of External Shocks on the Consumer Price Components: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(4), pages 781-807, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:20:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s40953-022-00317-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s40953-022-00317-8
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price pass-through; Exchange rate pass-through; Time-varying parameter VAR; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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