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К Вопросу О Долгосрочной Взаимосвязи Реального Потребления Домохозяйств С Реальным Доходом В Рф
[A note on cointegration relationship between real consumption and real income in Russia]

Author

Listed:
  • Polbin, Andrey
  • Fokin, Nikita

Abstract

The paper is devoted to testing for existence of a long run relationship between consumption and income in Russia. We couldn’t find cointegration between consumption of households and GDP in constant prices. But statistical tests are in favor of cointegration between consumption in constant prices and real income which we define as a ratio of nominal GDP to implicit deflator for consumption. We also estimated a VECM model for real consumption and real income. Our results show high predictability of consumption growth by the error correction mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2017. "К Вопросу О Долгосрочной Взаимосвязи Реального Потребления Домохозяйств С Реальным Доходом В Рф [A note on cointegration relationship between real consumption and real income in Russia]," MPRA Paper 82451, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82451
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; consumption forecasting; GDP; real income; VECM; cointegration; permanent income hypothesis; ARIMA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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