IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/15210.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time-Varying Instrumental Variable Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Marcellino, Massimiliano
  • Kapetanios, George
  • Giraitis, Liudas

Abstract

We develop non-parametric instrumental variable estimation and inferential theory for econometric models with possibly endogenous regressors whose coefficients can vary over time either deterministically or stochastically, and the time-varying and uniform versions of the standard Hausman exogeneity test. After deriving the asymptotic properties of the proposed procedures, we assess their finite sample performance by means of a set of Monte Carlo experiments, and illustrate their application by means of an empirical example on the Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Giraitis, Liudas, 2020. "Time-Varying Instrumental Variable Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15210
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP15210
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Alastair R. & Han, Sanggohn & Boldea, Otilia, 2012. "Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 281-302.
    2. Boldea, Otilia & Hall, Alastair R., 2013. "Estimation and inference in unstable nonlinear least squares models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 158-167.
    3. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2018. "Inference on Multivariate Heteroscedastic Time Varying Random Coefficient Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 129-149, March.
    4. Bertille Antoine & Otilia Boldea, 2015. "Efficient Inference with Time-Varying Information and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers dp15-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, revised 25 Aug 2016.
    5. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    7. Chen, Bin, 2015. "Modeling and testing smooth structural changes with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 196-215.
    8. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    10. Bin Chen & Yongmiao Hong, 2012. "Testing for Smooth Structural Changes in Time Series Models via Nonparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 1157-1183, May.
    11. Antoine, Bertille & Boldea, Otilia, 2018. "Efficient estimation with time-varying information and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(2), pages 268-300.
    12. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(5), pages 979-1016, September.
    13. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-285, March.
    14. Giraitis, L. & Kapetanios, G. & Yates, T., 2014. "Inference on stochastic time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 46-65.
    15. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    16. Ulrich K. Müller & Philippe-Emmanuel. Petalas, 2010. "Efficient Estimation of the Parameter Path in Unstable Time Series Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1508-1539.
    17. Kapetanios, G. & Tzavalis, E., 2010. "Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 417-436, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michele Fratianni & Federico Giri & Riccardo Lucchetti & Francesco Valentini, 2022. "Monetization, wars, and the Italian fiscal multiplier," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 176, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    2. Riccardo Lucchetti & Francesco Valentini, 2023. "Kernel-based time-varying IV estimation: handle with care," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 3001-3026, December.
    3. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao & Su, Liangjun & Wang, Xia, 2023. "Specification tests for time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 720-744.
    4. Mikihito Nishi, 2024. "Estimating Time-Varying Parameters of Various Smoothness in Linear Models via Kernel Regression," Papers 2406.14046, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    5. Francisco Blasques & Noah Stegehuis, 2024. "A Score-Driven Filter for Causal Regression Models with Time- Varying Parameters and Endogenous Regressors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-016/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Yu Bai & Massimiliano Marcellino & George Kapetanios, 2023. "Mean Group Instrumental Variable Estimation of Time-Varying Large Heterogeneous Panels with Endogenous Regressors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao, 2019. "A model-free consistent test for structural change in regression possibly with endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 206-242.
    2. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao & Su, Liangjun & Wang, Xia, 2023. "Specification tests for time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 720-744.
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "Time-Varying Parameters as Ridge Regressions," Papers 2009.00401, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    4. Giraitis, L. & Kapetanios, G. & Yates, T., 2014. "Inference on stochastic time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 46-65.
    5. George Kapetanios & Stephen Millard & Katerina Petrova & Simon Price, 2018. "Time varying cointegration and the UK great ratios," CAMA Working Papers 2018-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2017. "The asymptotic behaviour of the residual sum of squares in models with multiple break points," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 667-698, October.
    7. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2019. "Large time‐varying parameter VARs: A nonparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1027-1049, November.
    8. Yousuf, Kashif & Ng, Serena, 2021. "Boosting high dimensional predictive regressions with time varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 60-87.
    9. Rothfelder, Mario & Boldea, Otilia, 2016. "Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Other publications TiSEM 40ca581a-e228-49ae-911f-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Chen, Bin, 2015. "Modeling and testing smooth structural changes with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 196-215.
    11. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
    12. Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2013. "Testing structural stability in macroeconometric models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 9, pages 206-228, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Elliott, Graham & Müller, Ulrich K., 2014. "Pre and post break parameter inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 141-157.
    14. Yu Bai & Massimiliano Marcellino & George Kapetanios, 2023. "Mean Group Instrumental Variable Estimation of Time-Varying Large Heterogeneous Panels with Endogenous Regressors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    15. Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2018. "Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 42-53.
    16. Mikihito Nishi, 2024. "Estimating Time-Varying Parameters of Various Smoothness in Linear Models via Kernel Regression," Papers 2406.14046, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    17. John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2008. "Learning, forecasting and structural breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 553-583.
    18. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    19. Boldea, Otilia & Hall, Alastair R., 2013. "Estimation and inference in unstable nonlinear least squares models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 158-167.
    20. Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños & Sebastián Cadavid-Sánchez & Gerardo Kattan-Rodríguez, 2018. "Targeting Long-term Rates in a Model with Financial Frictions and Regime Switching," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 159-219, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.