Copula modelling of dependence in multivariate time series
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.04.003
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005.
"Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, "undated". "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius & Carnero, M. Angeles, 2007.
"Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMAGARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 16-27, March.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero, 2005. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-091/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
- Barnett, Glen & Kohn, Robert & Sheather, Simon, 1996.
"Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model using Markov chain Monte Carlo,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 237-254, October.
- Barnett, G. & Kohn, R. & Sheather, S., "undated". "Bayesian Estimation of an Autoregressive Model Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo," Statistics Working Paper _001, Australian Graduate School of Management.
- Brendan K. Beare, 2010.
"Copulas and Temporal Dependence,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 395-410, January.
- Beare, Brendan, 2008. "Copulas and Temporal Dependence," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt2880q2jq, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Beare, Brendan K., 2009. "Copulas and Temporal Dependence," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt87p829d4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006.
"Estimation of copula-based semiparametric time series models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 307-335, February.
- Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan, 2002. "Estimation of Copula-Based Semiparametric Time Series Models," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0226, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Oct 2004.
- Yanqin Fan & Xiaohong Chen, 2004. "Estimation of Copula-Based Semiparametric Time Series Models," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 559, Econometric Society.
- Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon‐Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2013.
"Stochastic search variable selection in vector error correction models with an application to a model of the UK macroeconomy,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 62-81, January.
- Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2009. "Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy," Working Papers 0919, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2009. "Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy," Working Paper series 44_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-44, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Hobæk Haff, Ingrid & Aas, Kjersti & Frigessi, Arnoldo, 2010. "On the simplified pair-copula construction -- Simply useful or too simplistic?," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(5), pages 1296-1310, May.
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2013.
"Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, March.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," MPRA Paper 21124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2010. "VAR Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Paper series 51_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Apr 2011.
- Ibragimov, Rustam, 2009. "Copula-Based Characterizations For Higher Order Markov Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 819-846, June.
- Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
- Joe, Harry, 2006. "Generating random correlation matrices based on partial correlations," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(10), pages 2177-2189, November.
- Smith, Michael, 2000. "Modeling and Short-term Forecasting of New South Wales Electricity System Load," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 465-478, October.
- Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Smith, Michael, 2008. "Bayesian density forecasting of intraday electricity prices using multivariate skew t distributions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 710-727.
- Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
- Ines Fortin & Christoph Kuzmics, 2002.
"Tail‐dependence in stock‐return pairs,"
Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 89-107, April.
- Fortin, Ines & Kuzmics, Christoph, 2002. "Tail-Dependence in Stock-Return Pairs," Economics Series 126, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- George, Edward I. & Sun, Dongchu & Ni, Shawn, 2008. "Bayesian stochastic search for VAR model restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 553-580, January.
- Peter Xue‐Kun Song, 2000. "Multivariate Dispersion Models Generated From Gaussian Copula," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 305-320, June.
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Garratt, Anthony & Koop, Gary & Mise, Emi & Vahey, Shaun P., 2009.
"Real-Time Prediction With U.K. Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 480-491.
- Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
- Michael Pitt & David Chan & Robert Kohn, 2006. "Efficient Bayesian inference for Gaussian copula regression models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(3), pages 537-554, September.
- Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010.
"An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
- Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models or electricity spot prices," MPRA Paper 20546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Aleksey Min & Claudia Czado, 2010. "Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Copulas Using Pair-Copula Constructions," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 511-546, Fall.
- Beare, Brendan K., 2012.
"Archimedean Copulas And Temporal Dependence,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(6), pages 1165-1185, December.
- Beare, Brendan K., 2010. "Archimedean Copulas and Temporal Dependence," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0xh8q1g3, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Daniels, M.J. & Pourahmadi, M., 2009. "Modeling covariance matrices via partial autocorrelations," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(10), pages 2352-2363, November.
- Smith, Michael & Min, Aleksey & Almeida, Carlos & Czado, Claudia, 2010. "Modeling Longitudinal Data Using a Pair-Copula Decomposition of Serial Dependence," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(492), pages 1467-1479.
- David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
- Rémillard, Bruno & Papageorgiou, Nicolas & Soustra, Frédéric, 2012. "Copula-based semiparametric models for multivariate time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 30-42.
- Bahar Biller, 2009. "Copula-Based Multivariate Input Models for Stochastic Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(4), pages 878-892, August.
- Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628.
- Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
- Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1993. "The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression-Intervention Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(4), pages 829-844, December.
- Smith M. & Kohn R., 2002. "Parsimonious Covariance Matrix Estimation for Longitudinal Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1141-1153, December.
- Markus Junker & Angelika May, 2005. "Measurement of aggregate risk with copulas," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 428-454, December.
- Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
- Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1776-1797, July.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
- Rubén Loaiza‐Maya & Michael S. Smith & Worapree Maneesoonthorn, 2018.
"Time series copulas for heteroskedastic data,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 332-354, April.
- Rub'en Loaiza-Maya & Michael S. Smith & Worapree Maneesoonthorn, 2017. "Time Series Copulas for Heteroskedastic Data," Papers 1701.07152, arXiv.org.
- Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
- Smith, Michael Stanley, 2023. "Implicit Copulas: An Overview," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 81-104.
- Michael Stanley Smith, 2021. "Implicit Copulas: An Overview," Papers 2109.04718, arXiv.org.
- Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
- Bladt Martin & McNeil Alexander J., 2022. "Time series with infinite-order partial copula dependence," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 87-107, January.
- Smith, Michael Stanley & Shively, Thomas S., 2018.
"Econometric modeling of regional electricity spot prices in the Australian market,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 886-903.
- Michael Stanley Smith & Thomas S. Shively, 2018. "Econometric Modeling of Regional Electricity Spot Prices in the Australian Market," Papers 1804.08218, arXiv.org.
- Nagler, Thomas & Krüger, Daniel & Min, Aleksey, 2022. "Stationary vine copula models for multivariate time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 305-324.
- Brendan K. Beare & Juwon Seo, 2015. "Vine Copula Specifications for Stationary Multivariate Markov Chains," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 228-246, March.
- Smith, Michael Stanley & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree, 2018. "Inversion copulas from nonlinear state space models with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 389-407.
- Juwon Seo, 2018. "Randomization Tests for Equality in Dependence Structure," Papers 1811.02105, arXiv.org.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Martin Bladt & Alexander J. McNeil, 2020. "Time series copula models using d-vines and v-transforms," Papers 2006.11088, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
- Martin Bladt & Alexander J. McNeil, 2021. "Time series models with infinite-order partial copula dependence," Papers 2107.00960, arXiv.org.
- Bladt, Martin & McNeil, Alexander J., 2022. "Time series copula models using d-vines and v-transforms," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 27-48.
- Craiu, V. Radu & Sabeti, Avideh, 2012. "In mixed company: Bayesian inference for bivariate conditional copula models with discrete and continuous outcomes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 106-120.
- Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2013. "Estimating non-linear serial and cross-interdependence between financial assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 837-846.
- Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2013.
"Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, March.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," MPRA Paper 21124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2010. "VAR Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Paper series 51_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Apr 2011.
More about this item
Keywords
Copula model; Nonlinear multivariate time series; Bayesian model averaging; Multivariate stationarity;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:3:p:815-833. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.