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Financial fragility in the Great Moderation

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  • Bezemer, Dirk
  • Grydaki, Maria

Abstract

A nascent literature explores the measurement of financial fragility. This paper considers evidence for rising financial fragility during the 1984–2007 Great Moderation in the U.S. The literature suggests that macroeconomic stability combined with strong growth of credit to asset markets, in asset prices and in credit relative to output are all indicators of rising financial fragility. We show each of these trends in the Great Moderation. We derive the testable implication that in the Great Moderation credit growth is driven more by past credit growth and less by output growth (Allen and Gale, 2000), relative to pre-Great Moderation years. Results from a VAR model estimated on quarterly data for 1955–2007 are consistent with the hypothesis. This invites a reinterpretation of the Great Moderation. Our methodology may help understand when a credit boom turns into a credit bubble, and contributes to the development of methods of measuring financial fragility.

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  • Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Financial fragility in the Great Moderation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 169-177.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:49:y:2014:i:c:p:169-177
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.09.005
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    4. Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2015. "A global house of debt effect? Mortgages and post-crisis recessions in fifty economies," Research Report 15009-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
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    8. Dirk Bezemer, 2014. "Schumpeter might be right again: the functional differentiation of credit," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 935-950, November.
    9. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Causality between credit depth and economic growth: evidence from 24 OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 493-524, September.
    10. Grégory Levieuge, 2017. "Explaining and forecasting bank loans. Good times and crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 823-843, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial fragility; Great Moderation; Credit; Output; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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