IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v60y2021i3d10.1007_s00181-019-01795-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

FDI, growth and trade partisan conflict in the US: TVP-BVAR approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yifei Cai

    (The University of Western Australia)

  • Angeliki Menegaki

    (Agricultural University of Athens
    Hellenic Open University
    Open University of Cyprus)

Abstract

This paper utilizes time-varying parameters Bayesian vector auto-regression model with stochastic volatility approach to investigate the time-varying dynamic relation between FDI, growth and trade partisan conflict in the US. The empirical results confirm that an increase in trade partisan conflict will deter FDI inflows to the US and discourage economic activities. Besides, we also examine the responses of equity investment, intra-company loans and reinvestment earnings given trade partisan conflict shock. In a robustness check, we consider different measurements on FDI and other control variables. The negative role of a trade partisan conflict shock is not altered, indicating the robustness of the findings. Moreover, trade partisan conflicts like GATT, Omnibus Bill Veto, NAFTA, Bush versus Kerry, the financial crisis and TPP are key factors which affect the dynamics. The US government should remedy the negative impacts of trade policy conflict on FDI inflows and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Yifei Cai & Angeliki Menegaki, 2021. "FDI, growth and trade partisan conflict in the US: TVP-BVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1335-1362, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:60:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01795-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01795-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-019-01795-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-019-01795-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 857-880.
    2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    3. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, August.
    5. James R. MARKUSEN, 2021. "Multinationals, Multi-Plant Economies, And The Gains From Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 1, pages 3-24, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.
    7. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    8. Samuel M. Hartzmark, 2016. "Economic Uncertainty and Interest Rates," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 179-220.
    9. Travis G. Coan & Tadeusz Kugler, 2008. "The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment: An Interactive Framework," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 402-422, December.
    10. Markus Kirchner & Jacopo Cimadomo & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2010. "Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area: Time Variation and Driving Forces," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    12. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    13. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    14. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2017. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty And Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1317-1354, November.
    15. Saif S. Alhakimi & James Peoples, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment And Domestic Wages In The Usa," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 47-64, January.
    16. Ida Bastiaens, 2016. "The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment in Authoritarian Regimes," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 140-171, January.
    17. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
    18. Dunning, John H, 1973. "The Determinants of International Production," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 289-336, November.
    19. Azzimonti, Marina & Talbert, Matthew, 2014. "Polarized business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 47-61.
    20. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    21. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    22. John H Dunning, 1980. "Towards an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 11(1), pages 9-31, March.
    23. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    24. Jing Zhou & Mar&xed;a C. Latorre, 2014. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Production Networks between China and East Asia and the Role of the USA and the Rest of the World as Final Markets," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 285-314, September.
    25. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-471, June.
    26. Azzimonti, Marina, 2019. "Does partisan conflict deter FDI inflows to the US?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 162-178.
    27. Tim Büthe & Helen V. Milner, 2008. "The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 741-762, October.
    28. repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Selmi, Refk & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Does partisan conflict predict a reduction in US stock market (realized) volatility? Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile regression model☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 87-96.
    30. Lee C. Adkins & Ronald L. Moomaw & Andreas Savvides, 2002. "Institutions, Freedom, and Technical Efficiency," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(1), pages 92-108, July.
    31. Li, Quan & Resnick, Adam, 2003. "Reversal of Fortunes: Democratic Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to Developing Countries," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 175-211, January.
    32. Bikash Ranjan Mishra & Pabitra Kumar Jena, 2019. "Bilateral FDI flows in four major Asian economies: a gravity model analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 71-89, January.
    33. Nigel Driffield & Michail Karoglou, 2019. "Brexit and foreign investment in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 182(2), pages 559-582, February.
    34. Arminen, Heli & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2019. "Corruption, climate and the energy-environment-growth nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 621-634.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sánchez-Martín, Miguel Eduardo & de Arce, Rafael & Escribano, Gonzalo, 2014. "Do changes in the rules of the game affect FDI flows in Latin America? A look at the macroeconomic, institutional and regional integration determinants of FDI," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 279-299.
    2. Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2021. "Time-varying interactions between geopolitical risks and renewable energy consumption," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 116-137.
    3. Dario Caldara & Chiara Scotti & Molin Zhong, 2021. "Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 1326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    5. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics 21088, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    6. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    7. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Zongo, Amara, 2020. "The Impact of Restrictive Measures on Bilateral FDI in OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 101929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rufei Zhang & Haizhen Zhang & Qingzhu Fan & Wang Gao & Xue Luo & Shixiong Yang, 2022. "Partisan Conflict, National Security Policy Uncertainty and Tourism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Konstantinos Dellis, 2018. "Financial development and FDI flows: evidence from advanced economies," Working Papers 254, Bank of Greece.
    11. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Does poverty deter foreign direct investment flows to developing countries?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 297-330, February.
    12. Azzimonti, Marina, 2019. "Does partisan conflict deter FDI inflows to the US?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 162-178.
    13. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    14. Christensen, Jonas Gade, 2011. "Democracy and Expropriations," Working Papers in Economics 06/11, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    15. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Predicting equity premium out-of-sample by conditioning on newspaper-based uncertainty measures: A comparative study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. Adams, Patrick A. & Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2021. "Forecasting macroeconomic risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1173-1191.
    17. Kansho Piotr Otsubo, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Japan: What Combination of Policies Should Be Used?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01n02), pages 1-25, February.
    18. Harms, Philipp & an de Meulen, Philipp, 2013. "Demographic structure and the security of property rights: The role of development and democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 73-89.
    19. Gu, Xin & Zhu, Zixiang & Yu, Minli, 2021. "The macro effects of GPR and EPU indexes over the global oil market—Are the two types of uncertainty shock alike?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    20. Nouha Bougharriou & Walid Benayed & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2021. "Under Which Condition Does the Democratization of the Arab World Improve FDI?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 224-248, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade partisan conflict; FDI; Growth; Time-varying; Bayesian VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:60:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01795-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.