IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v27y2021i7p1540-1560.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Winter tourism dependence: A cyclical and cointegration analysis. Case study for the Alps

Author

Listed:
  • Patricia Aranda-Cuéllar

    (University of Alcala, Spain)

  • José María López-Morales

    (University of Alcala, Spain)

  • María Jesús Such-Devesa

    (University of Alcala, Spain)

Abstract

This work studies the evolution of winter tourism in the main European ski resorts in recent years, exploring the degree of dependency it presents on the gross domestic product gaps of those European countries with the main registered incoming tourists attending to these ski resorts. This study consists of two parts: first, a cyclical behavior analysis of the evolution of winter tourism demand in these regions and its level of external dependence. This is achieved by the application of decomposition techniques of the economic cycle to verify the influence of these variables on the degree of cyclical fluctuation of winter tourism. For the second half, cointegration techniques are applied to test the linear or nonlinear combinations of these variables. This dual analysis allows a wider perspective, considering short- and long-term fluctuations, when analyzing co-movements and dependence of the demand of tourism-based destinations with a proxy variable for the income.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia Aranda-Cuéllar & José María López-Morales & María Jesús Such-Devesa, 2021. "Winter tourism dependence: A cyclical and cointegration analysis. Case study for the Alps," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(7), pages 1540-1560, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:27:y:2021:i:7:p:1540-1560
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816620932007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354816620932007
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1354816620932007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albert Marcet & Morte O. Ravn, "undated". "The HP-Filter in Cross-Country Comparisons," Studies on the Spanish Economy 100, FEDEA.
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    3. Martin Falk, 2015. "The Demand for Winter Sports: Empirical Evidence for the Largest French Ski-Lift Operator," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(3), pages 561-580, June.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. Falk, Martin & Lin, Xiang, 2018. "Sensitivity of winter tourism to temperature increases over the last decades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 174-183.
    7. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    8. Falk, Martin, 2013. "A survival analysis of ski lift companies," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 377-390.
    9. Robert M. de Jong & Neslihan Sakarya, 2016. "The Econometrics of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 310-317, May.
    10. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    11. Rapach, David E., 2002. "The long-run relationship between inflation and real stock prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, September.
    12. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Its Effects on Agricultural Producer Support Estimates: Empirical Evidence from India and China," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19121, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Antonio Alvarez-Sousa, 2018. "The Problems of Tourist Sustainability in Cultural Cities: Socio-Political Perceptions and Interests Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-30, February.
    14. Peter C. B. Phillips & Sainan Jin, 2021. "Business Cycles, Trend Elimination, And The Hp Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 469-520, May.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Rutty, Michelle & Scott, Daniel & Johnson, Peter & Pons, Marc & Steiger, Robert & Vilella, Marc, 2017. "Using ski industry response to climatic variability to assess climate change risk: An analogue study in Eastern Canada," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 196-204.
    17. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    18. Martin Falk & Robert Steiger, 2018. "An Exploration of the Debt Ratio of Ski Lift Operators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, August.
    19. Martin Falk & Eva Hagsten, 2017. "Climate change threats to one of the world’s largest cross-country skiing races," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 59-71, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rosas Chimal, Mario Alberto & Flores Ortega, Miguel, 2017. "Calificación riesgo país y flujos de capital en México: 1998-2012/Country risk rating and capital flows in Mexico: 1998-2012," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 191-216, Enero.
    2. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
    3. Giorgio Calcagnini & Germana Giombini & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2021. "The Productivity Gap Among Major European Countries, USA and Japan," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(1), pages 59-78, March.
    4. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis:evidence from New Zealand's small open economy," CAMA Working Papers 2022-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Mauricio, Jose Alberto, 2006. "Exact maximum likelihood estimation of partially nonstationary vector ARMA models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(12), pages 3644-3662, August.
    6. Martin T. Bohl & Alexander Pütz & Pierre L. Siklos & Christoph Sulewski, 2018. "Information Transmission under Increasing Political Tension – Evidence for the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887-1896," CQE Working Papers 7618, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    7. Sharafat, Ali & Hamid, Waqas & Muhammad, Asghar & Raheel Abbas, Kalroo & Muhammad, Ayaz & Mukhtyar, Khan, 2013. "Foreign Capital and Investment in Pakistan: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis," MPRA Paper 55640, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2013.
    8. Elizabeth Wakerly & Byron Scott & James Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
    9. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2022. "Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Bushara, Mohammed O. A. & Abdelmahmod, Murtada Kh. A., 2016. "Efficiency of selected camel markets in Sudan: A multivariate approach (1995-2011)," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246910, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    11. Ebenezer, Appiah Collins & Jatoe, John Baptist D. & Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi, 2018. "Food Price Sensitivity To Changes In Petroleum Price And Exchange Rate In Ghana: A Cointegration Analysis," 2018 Conference (2nd), August 8-11, Kumasi, Ghana 277791, Ghana Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Le Fur, Eric, 2020. "Dynamics of the global fine art market prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 167-180.
    13. Norman J. Morin, 2006. "Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Rabindra Nepal & John Foster, 2016. "Testing for Market Integration in the Australian National Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(4), pages 215-238, October.
    15. Gupta, Rakesh & Guidi, Francesco, 2012. "Cointegration relationship and time varying co-movements among Indian and Asian developed stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 10-22.
    16. Ali Shehadeh & Peter Erdos & Youwei Li & Michael Moore, 2016. "US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of "Cheap Money"," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(5), pages 374-404, October.
    17. Olagunju, Kehinde Oluseyi & Feng, Siyi & Patton, Myles, 2021. "Dynamic relationships among phosphate rock, fertilisers and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from a vector error correction model and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Giulia Ghiani, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," CEU Working Papers 2014_3, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    19. Óscar Penagos Gómez & Héctor Rojas Serrano & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2015. "La Paradoja de Feldstein-Horioka – Evidencia para Colombia durante 1925-2011," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 4-24, June.
    20. Lau, Sau-Him Paul & Sin, Chor-Yiu, 1997. "Observational equivalence and a stochastic cointegration test of the neoclassical and Romer's increasing returns models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:27:y:2021:i:7:p:1540-1560. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.