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Policy Preferences And Policy Makers' Beliefs: The Great Inflation

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  • Best, Gabriela

Abstract

The literature has proposed two potential channels through which monetary policy played a role in the Great Inflation in the United States. One approach posits that the Federal Reserve held misperceptions of the economy. An alternative explanation contends that policy makers shifted preferences from an output gap stabilization goal toward inflation stabilization after 1979. This paper develops a medium-scale macroeconomic model that incorporates real-time learning by policy makers as well as a (potential) shift in policy makers' preferences. The empirical results show that combining both views—distorted policy makers' beliefs about the persistence of inflation and the inflation-output gap trade-off, accompanied by a stronger preference for inflation stabilization after 1979—illuminates the role played by monetary policy in propagating and ending the Great Inflation.

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  • Best, Gabriela, 2017. "Policy Preferences And Policy Makers' Beliefs: The Great Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1957-1995, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:21:y:2017:i:08:p:1957-1995_00
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    2. Dmitri Blueschke & Klaus Weyerstrass & Reinhard Neck, 2024. "How can the preferences of policy makers be operationalised in optimum control problems with macroeconometric models? A case study for Slovenian fiscal policies," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 151-169.
    3. Best, Gabriela & Hur, Joonyoung, 2019. "Bad luck, bad policy, and learning? A Markov-switching approach to understanding postwar U.S. macroeconomic dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 55-78.

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