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DSGE Models and the Lucas Critique. A Historical Appraisal

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  • Francesco Sergi

    (University of the West of England, Bristol)

Abstract

This contribution to the history of the economic thought aims at describing how “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique” (Lucas, 1976) has been interpreted through four decades of debates. This historical appraisal clarifies how Lucas’s argument is currently understood and discussed within the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. The article illustrates how two opposite interpretations of the Lucas Critique arose in the early 1980s. On the one hand, a “theoretical interpretation” has been championed by the real business cycle (RBC) approach; on the other hand, an “empirical interpretation” has been advocated by Keynesians. Both interpretations can be understood as addressing a common question: Do microfoundations imply parameters’ stability? Following the RBC theoretical interpretation, microfoundations do imply stability; conversely, for Keynesians, parameters’ stability (or instability) should be supported by econometric evidence rather than theoretical considerations. Furthermore, the article argues that the DSGE approach represent a fragile compromise between these two opposite interpretations of Lucas (1976). This is especially true for the recent literature criticizing the DSGE models for being vulnerable to the Lucas Critique.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Sergi, 2018. "DSGE Models and the Lucas Critique. A Historical Appraisal," Working Papers 20181806, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwe:wpaper:20181806
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Francisco Louçã & Alexandre Abreu & Gonçalo Pessa Costa, 2021. "Disarray at the headquarters: Economists and Central bankers tested by the subprime and the COVID recessions [Forward guidance without common knowledge]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 273-296.
    3. Bongers, Anelí & Molinari, Benedetto & Torres, José L., 2022. "Computers, Programming and Dynamic General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Modeling," MPRA Paper 112505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Francesco Sergi, 2020. "The Standard Narrative about DSGE Models in Central Banks’ Technical Reports," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 163-193, March.

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