IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v52y2020ics1062940819304656.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of credit supply shocks in pacific alliance countries: A TVP-VAR-SV approach

Author

Listed:
  • Guevara, Carlos
  • Rodríguez, Gabriel

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect of loan supply shocks on the real economic activity of Pacific Alliance countries using a Time-Varying Parameter VAR with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) model which is identified by sign restrictions. Two main results arise from the analysis. First, loan supply shocks have an important impact on real economic activity in all Pacific Alliance countries: about 1% in Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, and about 0.5% in Chile. Thus, its contribution to business cycle fluctuations is similar to that of aggregate supply shocks and aggregate demand shocks in both stability and slowdown periods. Second, the power of loan supply shocks to affect economic activity do not remain constant over the time and its evolution across periods is heterogeneous among all Pacific Alliance countries. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the results of the model are robust to different priors specifications and to multiple sets of sign restrictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Guevara, Carlos & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "The role of credit supply shocks in pacific alliance countries: A TVP-VAR-SV approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:52:y:2020:i:c:s1062940819304656
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2019.101140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940819304656
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2019.101140?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    2. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    3. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    4. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 3-35, September.
    5. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    6. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gabriel Rodríguez & Carlos Guevara, 2018. "The Role of Loan Supply Shocks in Pacific Alliance Countries: A TVP-VAR-SV Approach," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-467, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    9. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    10. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
    11. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-271, February.
    12. Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "What Do Vars Tell Us About The Impact Of A Credit Supply Shock?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 625-646, May.
    13. Gregor Bäurle & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Credit cycles and real activity: the Swiss case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1939-1966, June.
    14. Paul Castillo Bardález & Jorge Salas, 2010. "The Terms of Trade as Drivers of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Economies: An Empirical Study," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2010eng, July-Dece.
    15. Luca Gambetti & Alberto Musso, 2017. "Loan Supply Shocks and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 764-782, June.
    16. Goodfriend, Marvin & McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1480-1507, July.
    17. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    18. John B. Taylor, 2010. "Commentary: monetary policy after the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 337-348.
    19. Paustian Matthias, 2007. "Assessing Sign Restrictions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, August.
    20. Valls Pereira, Pedro L. & da Silva Fonseca, Marcelo Gonçalves, 2012. "Credit Shocks and Monetary Policy in Brazil: A Structural Favar Approach," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 32(2), April.
    21. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    22. Gabriel Rodríguez & Pierina Villanueva Vega & Paul Castillo Bardalez, 2018. "Driving economic fluctuations in Peru: the role of the terms of trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1089-1119, November.
    23. Anil K Kashyap & Owen A. Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 565-592.
    24. Kim Abildgren, 2012. "Financial structures and the real effects of credit-supply shocks in Denmark 1922-2011," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 16(4), pages 490-510, November.
    25. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2015. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 233-257, January.
    26. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    27. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    29. Chance Ngamanya Mwabutwa & Nicola Viegi & Manoel Bittencourt, 2016. "Evolution Of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism In Malawi: A Tvp-Var Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 33-55, March.
    30. Elena Deryugina & Olga Kovalenko & Irina Pantina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps3, Bank of Russia.
    31. Adam Elbourne & Fabio Duchi, 2016. "Credit Supply Shocks in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 320, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    32. Busch, Ulrike & Scharnagl, Michael & Scheithauer, Jan, 2010. "Loan supply in Germany during the financial crisis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    33. Atta-Mensah, Joseph & Dib, Ali, 2008. "Bank lending, credit shocks, and the transmission of Canadian monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 159-176.
    34. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    35. Halvorsen, Jørn I. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2014. "How important can bank lending shocks be for economic fluctuations?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 104-123.
    36. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111111 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-115.
    38. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Erratum: Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1186-1186, April.
    39. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan Supply Shocks in Macedonia: A Bayesian SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 5-33, June.
    40. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2013. "Credit Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4281, CESifo.
    41. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    42. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-492, June.
    45. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    46. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    47. Charles R. Bean & Matthias Paustian & Adrian Penalver & Tim Taylor, 2010. "Monetary policy after the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267-328.
    48. Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Flavio Pérez Rojo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Jane Haldimand Marcet: Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Peruvian Economy Over Time," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-523, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    2. Adam Altăr & Matei Nicolae Kubinschi & Alina Zaharia, 2021. "Uncovering the Dynamic Relationship between Credit and Sustainable Economic Growth in Selected CEE Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gabriel Rodríguez & Carlos Guevara, 2018. "The Role of Loan Supply Shocks in Pacific Alliance Countries: A TVP-VAR-SV Approach," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-467, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    2. Sangyup Choi, 2018. "Bank Lending Standards, Loan Demand, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from the Emerging Market Bank Loan Officer Survey," Working papers 2018rwp-126, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    3. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-115.
    4. Abbate, Angela & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2016. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 41/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Gregor Bäurle & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Credit cycles and real activity: the Swiss case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1939-1966, June.
    6. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    7. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "A bank lending channel or a credit supply shock?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 314-332.
    8. Barauskaitė, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Rousová, Linda & Cappiello, Lorenzo, 2022. "The impact of credit supply shocks in the euro area: market-based financing versus loans," Working Paper Series 2673, European Central Bank.
    9. Breitenlechner, Max & Mathy, Gabriel P. & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were loan supply shocks?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Francesco Furlanetto & Francesco Ravazzolo & Samad Sarferaz, 2019. "Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 311-337.
    11. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2020. "Bank loan supply shocks and alternative financing of non‐financial corporations in the euro area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 126-150, September.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    13. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    14. Jelena Zivanovic, 2019. "What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions?," Staff Working Papers 19-38, Bank of Canada.
    15. Palmén, Olli, 2020. "Sovereign default risk and credit supply: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    16. Eickmeier, Sandra & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Hofmann, Boris, 2014. "Understanding global liquidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    17. Jefferson Martínez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Loan Supply Shocks: Empirical Evidence for Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-483, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    18. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan Supply Shocks in Macedonia: A Bayesian SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 5-33, June.
    19. Andrej Sokol & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2017. "The International Credit Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and Financial Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 724, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2020. "Labor Market and Financial Shocks: A Time‐Varying Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 777-801, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan supply shocks; Time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility; Sign restrictions; Impulse-response function; Historical decomposition; Business cycles; Pacific alliance bloc; Chile; Peru; Mexico; Colombia; C32; E32; E51;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:52:y:2020:i:c:s1062940819304656. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.