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Measuring Contagion With A Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model

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  • Alessandro Rebucci

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

We propose to use a time-varying coefficient model to measure contagion. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables. It requires knowledge of the source of the crisis but not its timing. The estimation procedure is Bayesian and is based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We asses the performance of the proposed measure both with simulated and actual data.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Measuring Contagion With A Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2003-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gérard & Arjan Kadareja & Simone Manganelli, 2014. "Measuring Comovements by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 645-678.
    4. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
    5. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, August.
    6. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Naidoo, Lutchmee & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amoo, Nii, 2018. "Implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies: A comparative analysis of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-88.
    7. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
    8. Guidolin, Massimo & Hansen, Erwin & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Cross-asset contagion in the financial crisis: A Bayesian time-varying parameter approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 83-114.
    9. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Manganelli, Simone & Kadareja, Arjan, 2008. "The impact of the euro on equity markets: a country and sector decomposition," Working Paper Series 906, European Central Bank.
    10. Baele, Lieven & Inghelbrecht, Koen, 2010. "Time-varying integration, interdependence and contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 791-818, September.
    11. Hadhri, Sinda, 2023. "News-based economic policy uncertainty and financial contagion: An international evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 63-76.
    12. Legrand, Romain, 2018. "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions: Efficient Estimation, Random Inertia and Random Mean," MPRA Paper 88925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Muhammad Shahbaz & Trinh Thi Mai & Moade Shubita, 2021. "Development of Vietnamese stock market: Influence of domestic macroeconomic environment and regional markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1435-1458, January.
    14. Simone Manganelli & Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gerard, 2004. "The Contagion Box: Measuring Co-Movements in Financial Markets by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 77, Econometric Society.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Gibbs sampling; heteroskedasticity; omitted variable;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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