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Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run

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  • Alfred A. Haug
  • Ian P. King

Abstract

We examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the long run,using quarterly US data from 1952 to 2010. Using a band-pass filter approach, we find strong evidence that a positive relationship exists, where inflation leads unemployment by some 3 to 3.5 years, in cycles that last from 8 to 25 or 50 years. Our statistical approach is atheoretical in nature, but provides evidence in accordance with the predictions of Friedman (1977) and the recent New Monetarist model of Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright (2011): the relationship between inflation and unemployment is positive in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred A. Haug & Ian P. King, 2011. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1128, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1128
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    Cited by:

    1. Mallick, Debdulal, 2014. "A Spectral Representation of the Phillips Curve in Australia," MPRA Paper 59794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2011. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 371-398, February.
    3. Amaka G. Metu & Emmanuel Ajudua & Ifeoma Eboh & Chimezie Ukeje & Chekwube Madichie, 2020. "Ending youth unemployment in sub‐saharan Africa: Does ICT development have any role?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(S1), pages 20-31, November.
    4. Haug, Alfred A. & King, Ian, 2014. "In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 42-52.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Unemployment; Long-Run Phillips Curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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