IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v12y2019i2p77-d227461.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Expectation Theory: Insights for Market Participants

Author

Listed:
  • Bodo Herzog

    (Economics Department, ESB Business School, Alteburgstr. 150, 72762 Reutlingen, Germany)

Abstract

This paper develops a new methodology in order to study the role of dynamic expectations. Neither reference-point theories nor feedback models are sufficient to describe human expectations in a dynamic market environment. We use an interdisciplinary approach and demonstrate that expectations of non-learning agents are time-invariant and isotropic. On the contrary, learning enhances expectations. We uncover the “yardstick of expectations” in order to assess the impact of market developments on expectations. For the first time in the literature, we reveal new insights about the motion of dynamic expectations. Finally, the model is suitable for an AI approach and has major implications on the behaviour of market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Bodo Herzog, 2019. "Dynamic Expectation Theory: Insights for Market Participants," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-14, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:12:y:2019:i:2:p:77-:d:227461
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/2/77/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/2/77/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
    2. Botond Kőszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2006. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(4), pages 1133-1165.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    4. repec:mtp:titles:026201761x-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Blanchard, Olivier, 2012. "Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Crisis," MIT Press Book Chapters, in: Blanchard, Olivier J. & Romer, David & Spence, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E. (ed.), In the Wake of the Crisis: Leading Economists Reassess Economic Policy, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 7-13, The MIT Press.
    6. Daniel Kahneman & Jack L. Knetsch & Richard H. Thaler, 1991. "Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 193-206, Winter.
    7. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    8. Joseph E Stiglitz, 2018. "Where modern macroeconomics went wrong," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 70-106.
    9. Colander,David (ed.), 2006. "Post Walrasian Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521865487, January.
    10. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Modeling The Evolution Of Expectations And Uncertainty In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 717-756, May.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    13. Grosskopf, Brit & Nagel, Rosemarie, 2008. "The two-person beauty contest," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 93-99, January.
    14. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Anticipated Utility And Rational Expectations As Approximations Of Bayesian Decision Making," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 185-221, February.
    15. Colander,David (ed.), 2006. "Post Walrasian Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521684200, January.
    16. Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2007. "Reference-Dependent Risk Attitudes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1047-1073, September.
    17. Nagel, Rosemarie, 1995. "Unraveling in Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1313-1326, December.
    18. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December.
    19. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2016. "How to Restore Equitable and Sustainable Economic Growth in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 43-47, May.
    20. Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Estimating Models with Dispersed Information," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 1-31, January.
    21. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    22. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marek Hudik, 2019. "Two interpretations of the rational choice theory and the relevance of behavioral critique," Rationality and Society, , vol. 31(4), pages 464-489, November.
    2. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    3. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Xavier Gabaix, 2017. "Behavioral Inattention," NBER Working Papers 24096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja), 2016. "On Measuring Uncertainty: Snakes and Ladders," IZA Discussion Papers 10244, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2012. "Not Going Away? Microfoundations in the Making of a New Consensus in Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Microfoundations Reconsidered, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Daniel Gottlieb & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2020. "Narrow Framing and Long‐Term Care Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(4), pages 861-893, December.
    8. Erhard Glötzl & Florentin Glötzl & Oliver Richters, 2019. "From constrained optimization to constrained dynamics: extending analogies between economics and mechanics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 623-642, September.
    9. Abigail N. Devereaux & Richard E. Wagner, 2020. "Contrasting Visions for Macroeconomic Theory: DSGE and OEE," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 65(1), pages 28-50, March.
    10. Olapeju Comfort Ogunmokun & Oluwasoye P. Mafimisebi & Demola Obembe, 2023. "Prospect theory and bank credit risk decision-making behaviour: a systematic literature review and future research agenda," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 1-25, April.
    11. Dilip Nachane, 2017. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Modelling :Theory And Practice," Working Papers id:11699, eSocialSciences.
    12. Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2018. "Toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 999-1014.
    13. Pedro Garcia Duarte & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2012. "Microfoundations Reconsidered," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14869.
    14. Miguel Henry & George Judge, 2019. "Permutation Entropy and Information Recovery in Nonlinear Dynamic Economic Time Series," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, March.
    15. Hommes, Cars & Zhu, Mei, 2014. "Behavioral learning equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 778-814.
    16. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2013. "Salience and Consumer Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 803-843.
    17. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Modeling The Evolution Of Expectations And Uncertainty In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 717-756, May.
    18. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Genakos, Christos & Roumanias, Costas & Valletti, Tommaso, 2023. "Is having an expert “friend” enough? An analysis of consumer switching behavior in mobile telephony," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 359-372.
    20. Luca Fanelli & Giulio Palomba, 2011. "Simulation‐based tests of forward‐looking models under VAR learning dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 762-782, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:12:y:2019:i:2:p:77-:d:227461. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.