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Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Eisenstat

    (Faculty of Business Administration, University of Bucharest, Romania; RIMIR)

  • Joshua C.C. Chan

    (Research School of Economics, and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University)

  • Rodney Strachan

    (School of Economics, and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, University of Queensland; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

Abstract

This article develops a new econometric methodology for performing stochastic model specification search (SMSS) in the vast model space of time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility and correlated state transitions. This is motivated by the concern of over-fitting and the typically imprecise inference in these highly parameterized models. For each VAR coefficient, this new method automatically decides whether it is constant or time-varying. Moreover, it can be used to shrink an otherwise unrestricted time-varying parameter VAR to a stationary VAR, thus providing an easy way to (probabilistically) impose stationarity in time-varying parameter models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach with a topical application, where we investigate the dynamic effects of structural shocks in government spending on U.S. taxes and GDP during a period of very low interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney Strachan, 2014. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Working Paper series 44_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:44_14
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary M. Koop, 2013. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARS," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 177-203, March.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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