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Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility

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  • Paul Castillo
  • Carlos Montoro
  • Vicente Tuesta

Abstract

In this paper we establish a link between the volatility of oil price shocks and a positive expected value of inflation in equilibrium (inflation premium). In doing so, we implement the perturbation method to solve up to second order a benchmark New Keynesian model with oil price shocks. In contrast with log linear approximations, the second order solution relaxes certainty equivalence providing a link between the volatility of shocks and inflation premium. First, we obtain analytical results for the determinants of the level of inflation premium. Thus, we find that the degree of convexity of both the marginal cost and the Phillips curve is a key element in accounting for the existence of a positive inflation premium. We further show that the level of inflation premium might be potentially large even when a central bank implements an active monetary policy. Second, we evaluate numerically the second order solution of the model to explain the episode of high and persistent inflation observed in the US during the 70’s. We find, in contrast with Clarida, Gali and Gertler (QJE, 2000), that even when there is no difference in the monetary policy rules between the pre-Volcker and post-Volcker periods, oil price shocks can generate high inflation levels during the 70’s through a positive high level of inflation premium. As by product, our analysis shows that oil price shocks along with a distorted steady state can generate a time-varying endogenous trade-off between inflation and deviations of output from its efficient level. The previous trade-off, once uncertainty is taking into account, implies that a positive level of inflation premium is an optimal response to oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2005. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 350, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:350
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    Cited by:

    1. Montoro, Carlos, 2012. "Oil Shocks And Optimal Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 240-277, April.
    2. Jean‐Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, February.
    3. Wetzstein, M. & Wetzstein, H., 2011. "Four myths surrounding U.S. biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4308-4312, July.
    4. Roman E. Romero, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Oil-Producing Economies," Working Papers 1053, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Rossi, Lorenza, 2021. "Asymmetries in monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Zhang, Zibin & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2008. "New relationships: ethanol, corn, and gasoline volatility," Risk, Infrastructure and Industry Evolution Conference, June 24-25, 2008, Berkeley, California 48718, Farm Foundation.
    8. Haykaz Igityan, 2019. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Different Phases of Armenia's Business Cycle," Working Papers 11, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
    9. Roman E. Romero, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Oil-Producing Economies," Working Papers 1053, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    10. Haykaz Igityan, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on the Armenian Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(1), pages 46-103, March.
    11. Haykaz Igityan, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on the Armenian Economy," Working Papers 18, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, revised Mar 2021.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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