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Patterns Of Unemployment Dynamics In Germany

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  • Rahn, Daniela
  • Weber, Enzo

Abstract

Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, this paper provides deeper insight into unemployment dynamics in Germany. We identify a technology shock and two policy shocks that play a central role in business cycle research. Accordingly, we enrich the discussion on the sources of unemployment dynamics by considering demand-side impulses. The worker reallocation process varies substantially with the identified shocks. The job-finding rate plays a larger role after a technology shock and a monetary policy shock, whereas the separation rate appears to be the dominant margin after a fiscal policy shock. Technology shocks turn out to be relatively important for variations in the transition rates. Regarding policy shocks, our results point toward fiscal interventions as a promising instrument but with several limitations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahn, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "Patterns Of Unemployment Dynamics In Germany," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 322-357, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:01:p:322-357_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Marine Salès, 2016. "Do Corporate Credit Conditions Alter Labor Market Dynamics? A SVAR Analysis in a Transatlantic Perspective," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01333025, HAL.
    2. Christian Hutter & Francesco Carbonero & Sabine Klinger & Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2022. "Which factors were behind Germany's labour market upswing? A data‐driven approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1052-1076, October.
    3. Nordmeier, Daniela & Schmerer, Hans-Jörg & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Trade and labor market dynamics: What do we learn from the data?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 206-209.
    4. Rujin, Svetlana, 2024. "Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Marine Salès, 2016. "Do Corporate Credit Conditions Alter Labor Market Dynamics? A SVAR Analysis in a Transatlantic Perspective," Working Papers hal-01333025, HAL.
    6. Rujin, Svetlana, 2019. "What are the effects of technology shocks on international labor markets?," Ruhr Economic Papers 806, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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