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A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach

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  • Yueqing Jia

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

This paper provides quarterly real GDP estimates for China from 1978q1-1991q4 using an unobserved component approach. The approach imposes fewer prior restrictions on related series and is more flexible than other disaggregation methods. The multivariate unobserved components model with total trade and domestic credit as related series is selected as the best fit model for temporal disaggregation of China’s real GDP. The estimated quarterly real GDP data are then evaluated with univariate and multivariate time series analysis techniques. The constructed quarterly data are shown of good quality and provide valuable information for the analyses of China’s macroeconomic fluctuations during the period.

Suggested Citation

  • Yueqing Jia, 2011. "A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2011-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2011-006
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    File URL: https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2011-006.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Kerola, Eeva, 2018. "In search of fluctuations : Another look at China’s incredibly stable GDP growth," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
    3. Kerola, Eeva, 2018. "In search of fluctuations: Another look at China's incredibly stable GDP growth," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Eeva Kerola, 2019. "In Search of Fluctuations: Another Look at China’s Incredibly Stable GDP Growth Rates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 359-380, September.
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_023 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; economic growth; temporal disaggregation unobserved components; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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