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Price-level uncertainty and instability in the United Kingdom

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  • Cogley, Timothy
  • Sargent, Thomas J.
  • Surico, Paolo

Abstract

Was UK inflation more stable and/or less uncertain before 1914 or after 1945? We address these questions by estimating a statistical model with changing volatilities in transient and persistent components of inflation. Three conclusions emerge. First, since periods of high and low volatility occur in both eras, neither features uniformly greater stability or lower uncertainty. When comparing peaks with peaks and troughs with troughs, however, we find clear evidence that the price level was more stable before World War I. We also find some evidence for lower uncertainty at pre-1914 troughs, but its statistical significance is borderline.

Suggested Citation

  • Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J. & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Price-level uncertainty and instability in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:52:y:2015:i:c:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.11.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2021. "International Co-movements of Inflation, 1851-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 15914, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 771-801, April.
    3. Pooyan Amir‐Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu‐Chun Wang, 2016. "Drifts and volatilities under measurement error: Assessing monetary policy shocks over the last century," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 591-611, July.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 847, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Trani, Tommaso, 2019. "The cyclical structure of the UK inflation rate: 1210–2016," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 182-185.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2020. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectorial Inflation in the Euro Area," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 9, pages 317-344, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "UK Inflation Forecasts since the Thirteenth Century," Working Paper 1454, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    8. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2016. "Are Monetary Policy Disturbances Important in Ghana? Some Evidence from Agnostic Identification," MPRA Paper 70205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hakan Berument & Ezequiel Cabezon & Richard Froyen, 2017. "A century and three-quarters of Bank Rate and long-term interest rates in the United Kingdom," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 26-47, March.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2019-30, Princeton University. Economics Department..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Price stability; Price-level uncertainty; Nonlinear state-space model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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