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Stock markets and business cycle comovement in Germany before World War I: Evidence from spectral analysis

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  • Uebele, Martin
  • Ritschl, Albrecht

Abstract

Historical national account data are often plagued by quality problems, and rivaling series imply different business cycle chronologies. This problem is particularly grave for Germany before World War I [Burhop, C., Wolff, G.B., 2005. A compromise estimate of net national product and the business cycle in Germany 1851-1913. Journal of Economic History 65(3), 615-657]. We exploit the comovement between asset prices and various GNP estimates under the efficient market hypothesis to obtain an improved business cycle dating, and to decide between the various alternative national accounts series. We also examine the comovement between financial markets and various disaggregate indicators of real investment. Employing both time and frequency domain techniques, we find impressive comovement between the stock market, an estimate of the aggregate wage bill, and disaggregate evidence on real investment. Our findings confirm traditional business cycle chronologies for Germany and lead us to discard later, revisionist attempts to date the business cycle.

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  • Uebele, Martin & Ritschl, Albrecht, 2009. "Stock markets and business cycle comovement in Germany before World War I: Evidence from spectral analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-57, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:1:p:35-57
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    8. Lukasz Lenart, 2015. "Discrete Spectral Analysis. The Case of Industrial Production in Selected European Countries," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 15, pages 27-47.
    9. William A. Allen & Richhild Moessner, 2011. "The international propagation of the financial crisis of 2008 and a comparison with 1931," BIS Working Papers 348, Bank for International Settlements.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle chronology Imperial Germany Spectral analysis Efficient market hypothesis;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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