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The Effects of Bussiness Cycles on Growth

In: Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles

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  • Antonio Fatás

    (European Institute of Business Administration)

Abstract

This paper studies the link between business cycles and long-term growth rates. We present empirical evidence that uncovers interesting and significant interactions between cycles and growth. We show that business cycles cannot be considered as temporary deviations from a trend and that there is a strong positive correlation between the persistence of short-term fluctuations and long-term growth rates. A simple endogenous growth model where business cycles affect growth can easily replicate this correlation. We then study the link between volatility and growth. We show that countries with more volatile fluctuations display lower long-term growth rates. We also find evidence that there is a non-linearity in this relationship. The effect of business cycles on growth is much larger for poor countries or countries with a lower degree of financial development.
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Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Fatás, 2002. "The Effects of Bussiness Cycles on Growth," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 7, pages 191-220, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v06c07pp191-220
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    2. Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2017. "On The Interaction Between Economic Growth And Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 982-1022, June.
    3. Michał Brzozowski, 2012. "Wpływ wahań produkcji i wielkości kredytu na wartość dodaną w polskim przemyśle przetwórczym," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 57-77.
    4. Pamela Góngora Salazar, 2010. "Determinantes de la volatilidad en el producto: evidencia empírica," Vniversitas Económica 8297, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    5. Fabrizio Carmignani, "undated". "Cyclical fiscal policy in developing countries: the case of Africa," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2408, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    6. Davide Fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2017. "Asymmetric macroeconomic volatility in European regions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2-3), pages 251-278, July.
    7. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 2006/172, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2008. "Human capital accumulation and output growth in a stochastic environment," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 36(3), pages 435-452, September.
    9. Eze, Titus Chinweuba, 2016. "Re-Examination of Wagners Hypothesis: Implications for the Dwindling Oil Revenue in Nigeran Economy," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(3), pages 74-90, September.
    10. Ramirez-Rondán Nelson, 2007. "Nonlinear Volatility Effects on Growth in Developing Economies," Working Papers 2007-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    11. Shu-Chin Lin & Dong-Hyeon Kim, 2014. "The link between economic growth and growth volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 43-63, February.
    12. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    13. José De Gregorio, 2007. "Algunas Reflexiones sobre el Crecimiento Económico en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 20, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2010. "Cyclical fiscal policy in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 254-267, March.
    15. Lee Robinson & Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2012. "China’s Ambiguous Impacts on Commodity-Dependent Countries: the Example of Sub-Saharan Africa (with a Focus on Zambia)," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    16. John G. Fernald, 2016. "Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?," Working Paper Series 2016-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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