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Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data

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  • Pär Österholm

    (National Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether forecasts of the Swedish unemployment rate can be improved by using business or household survey data. We conduct a simulated out-of-sample forecast exercise in which the performance of a Bayesian VAR model with only macroeconomic variables is compared to that when the model also includes variables based on survey data. Results show that the forecasting performance at short horizons can be improved. The improvement is largest when forward-looking variables based on data from the manufacturing industry are employed.

Suggested Citation

  • Pär Österholm, 2010. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:fep:journl:v:23:y:2010:i:1:p:16-26
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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