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Economic Growth and Business Cycles: A Critical Comment on Detrending Time Series (Revised Version)

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  • Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hopp�

Abstract

In this paper we pursue an approach based on economic theory to illustrate possible shortcomings of widely-used detrending methods.We analyze a simple model of economic growth and business cycles in which investment and technical progress are stochastic.The Hodrick-Prescott and the Baxter-King filter are shown to detect spurious business cycles which are not related to actual cycles in the model.Our results cast doubts on the validity of commonly-accepted stylized business cycle facts. We also discuss the relation of business-cycle dating based on indicators of economic activity,as e.g.applied by the NBER,and the detrending results.

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  • Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hopp�, "undated". "Economic Growth and Business Cycles: A Critical Comment on Detrending Time Series (Revised Version)," IEW - Working Papers 054, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:054
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    detrending; business cycles; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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