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Small-scale New Keynesian model features that can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns

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  • Cassou Steven P.

    (Department of Economics, 327 Waters Hall, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA)

  • Vázquez Jesús

    (Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco (UPV/EHU), Av. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain)

Abstract

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan [den Haan, W. J. 2000. “The Comovement between Output and Prices.” Journal of Monetary Economics 46: 3–30]. This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well-known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium-term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a small-scale New Keynesian model with some important modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. We show that a general equilibrium model with habit formation, persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Cassou Steven P. & Vázquez Jesús, 2014. "Small-scale New Keynesian model features that can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 267-300, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:14:y:2014:i:1:p:34:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2012-0037
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bryce Kanago, 2023. "The Comovement Between Forecast Errors for Real GDP and Its Deflator in Six OECD Countries: Did Supply Shocks Become Less Dominant During the Great Moderation?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 149-169, September.
    3. Eurilton Araújo, 2016. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Comovement between Stock Returns and Inflation," Working Papers Series 449, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecast errors; inflation persistence; New Keynesian; output and inflation comovement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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