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A measure of monetary conditions

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Abstract

This paper explains why the overall stance of monetary policy is effected by both interest rates and the exchange rate, and hence why a Monetary Conditions Indicator can provide useful information about the stance of policy. Three output gap equations estimated in this paper reveal that the real interest rate and the real exchange rate both affect excess demand but that the real interest rate is the more powerful and faster acting policy transmission channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Dennis, 1997. "A measure of monetary conditions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1997/01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eika, Kari H & Ericsson, Neil R & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 765-790, November.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
    4. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
    5. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    6. Charles Freedman, 1995. "The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy [speech]," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Autumn), pages 53-59.
    7. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    8. Economics Department, 1996. "Summary indicators of monetary conditions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 59, September.
    9. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    11. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bayangos, V.B., 2000. "real monetary conditions index for the Philippines : is it useful?," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19054, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Ben Hunt & Adrian Orr, 1999. "Inter-forecast monetary policy implementation: responding to unexpected exchange rate movements," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
    3. Leo Bonato & Robert St. Clair & Rainer Winkelmann, 1999. "Survey expectations of monetary conditions in New Zealand: determinants and implications for the transmission of policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/6, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Ali MNA & Moheddine YOUNSI, 2018. "A monetary conditions index and its application on Tunisian economic forecasting," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 38-56, March.
    5. David Hargreaves, 1999. "SDS-FPS: a small demand-side version of the Forecasting and Policy System core model," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Mna, Ali & Younsi, Moheddine, 2018. "A Monetary Conditions Index and its Application on Tunisian Economic Forecasting," MPRA Paper 83648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
    8. Luis Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using Additional Information in Estimating the Output Gap in Peru: a Multivariate Unobserved Component Approach," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 57-82, January-J.
    9. Arjeta Vokshi (Abazi), 2013. "A Monetary Conditions Index For Albania," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(15), pages 1-18.
    10. Stephen J. Burnell, 1998. "New Zealand’s Monetary Conditions Index: A Critical Analysis," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 5(4), pages 477-486.
    11. Caesar P Lack, 2003. "A financial conditions index for Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 398-413, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Peeters, Marga, 1999. "Measuring monetary conditions in Europe: Use and limitations of the monetary conditions index," MPRA Paper 23534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ben Hunt, 1999. "Inter-forecast monetary policy implementation: fixed-instrument versus MCI-based strategies," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Mayes, David G. & Razzak, W. A., 1998. "Transparency and accountability: Empirical models and policy making at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 377-394, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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