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Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts

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  • Xiaoshan Chen
  • Terence Mills

Abstract

Several recent studies have used multivariate unobserved components models to identify the output gap and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. A key assumption of these models is that one common cycle component, such as the output gap, drives the cyclical fluctuations in all variables included in the model. This article also uses the multivariate approach to estimate the euro area output gap and the trends and cycles in other macroeconomic variables. However, it adopts a flexible way of linking the output gap to the cycle components in the other variables, in that we do not impose any leading or lagging restrictions between cycle components, as has been done in most previous studies. Our approach also allows us to assess the strength of cycle association and cross-correlation among cycle components using the model’s parameter estimates. Finally, we demonstrate that our multivariate model can provide a satisfactory historical output gap estimate and also a ‘real-time’ estimate for the aggregate euro area. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:43:y:2012:i:2:p:671-692
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-011-0495-7
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    2. González-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output gap; Higher-order cycle; State space; Kalman filter; C32; E32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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