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A tale of two tails: 130 years of growth at risk

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  • Gächter, Martin
  • Hasler, Elias
  • Huber, Florian

Abstract

We extend the growth-at-risk (GaR) literature by examining US growth risks over 130 years using a time-varying parameter stochastic volatility regression model. This model effectively captures the distribution of GDP growth over long samples, accommodating changing relationships across variables and structural breaks. Our analysis offers several key insights for policymakers. We identify significant temporal variation in both the level and determinants of GaR. The stability of upside risks to GDP growth, as seen in previous research, is largely confined to the Great Moderation period, with a more balanced risk distribution prior to the 1970s. Additionally, the distribution of GDP growth has narrowed significantly since the end of the Bretton Woods system. Financial stress is consistently associated with higher downside risks, without affecting upside risks. Moreover, indicators such as credit growth and house prices influence both downside and upside risks during economic booms. Our findings also contribute to the financial cycle literature by providing a comprehensive view of the drivers and risks associated with economic booms and recessions over time.

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  • Gächter, Martin & Hasler, Elias & Huber, Florian, 2025. "A tale of two tails: 130 years of growth at risk," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29, pages 1-1, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:29:y:2025:i::p:-_46
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristian Andrei Budris & Bogdan Dima, 2024. "Exploring The Fama-French Five Factor Model Within a Time-Varying Parameters Framework," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 16(2), pages 309-357, December.
    2. Gächter, Martin & Hasler, Elias & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Kicking the can down the road: A historical growth-at-risk perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

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