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Ciclos, crecimiento económico y crisis en México, 1980.1-2013.4

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Loría

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

  • Emmanuel Salas

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

Abstract

By using the X-12-ARIMA procedure and the HP filter (lambda = 1 096) with end-of-sample correction (St. Amant and van Norden, 1997; Sarabia, 2010), we identified the growth cycles and estimated the potential output for the Mexican economy (1980.1- 2013.4). We found that: a) there have been six cycles, b) their duration is of about 15-22 quarters, c) their amplitude regarding the potential output varies between 4.46% and -6.48%, d) the expansionary phases never have been above the former data, thus it can be considered as an alarm signal of the end of a cycle, and e) by 2013.4 the Mexican economy was 2.5% below.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Loría & Emmanuel Salas, 2014. "Ciclos, crecimiento económico y crisis en México, 1980.1-2013.4," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 29(2), pages 131-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:29:y:2014:i:2:p:131-161
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    File URL: https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/71/72
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Loría & Emmanuel Salas, 2015. "Mexico and the United States: cycle synchronization,1980.1-2013.4," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 75-102, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; potential output; end-of-sample correction; growth rolling window;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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