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Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective

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  • Bhavesh Salunkhe
  • Anuradha Patnaik

Abstract

The present study estimates various specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) models for India over 1996Q2 to 2017Q2 using Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation, separately. The empirical results suggest that the data support all the specifications of the Phillips curve models based on both the CPI and WPI inflations. However, the backward looking and hybrid models provide robust results for both the inflation indices. While the forward-looking behaviour dominates the CPI inflation trajectory, the backward-looking behaviour greatly influences the trajectory of WPI inflation. Also, a small-to-moderate degree of persistence is evident in both the CPI and WPI inflation. The output gap, which mainly represents the demand side pressures, turns up the major force determining both the CPI and WPI inflations. Besides the output gap, real effective exchange rate (reer), international crude oil price inflation, global non-fuel commodity price inflation and rainfall have a modest impact on the CPI and WPI inflations. JEL Classification: E12, E52, C36, C14

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  • Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 144-179, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:8:y:2019:i:2:p:144-179
    DOI: 10.1177/2277978719861186
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    3. Behera, Harendra Kumar & Patra, Michael Debabrata, 2022. "Measuring trend inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Anuradha Patnaik, 2022. "Measuring Demand and Supply Shocks From COVID-19: An Industry-Level Analysis for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 76-105, February.
    5. Angeline B. Rohoia & Parmendra Sharma, 2021. "Do Inflation Expectations Matter for Small, Open Economies? Empirical Evidence from the Solomon Islands," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-18, September.
    6. Vijay Victor & Joshy Joseph Karakunnel & Swetha Loganathan & Daniel Francois Meyer, 2021. "From a Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Inflation–Unemployment Comparison between the UK and India," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; inflation; output gap; new Keynesian;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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