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Can the New Keynesian Phillips Curve explain inflation gap persistence?

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  • Yao, Fang

Abstract

Whelan (2007) found that the generalized Calvo-sticky-price model fails to replicate a typical feature of the empirical reduced-form Phillips curve - the positive dependence of inflation on its own lags. In this paper, I show hat it is the 4-period-Taylor-contract hazard function he chose that gives rise to this result. In contrast, an empirically-based aggregate price reset hazard function can generate simulated data that are consistent with inflation gap persistence found in US CPI data. I conclude that a non-constant price reset hazard plays a crucial role for generating realistic inflation dynamics.

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  • Yao, Fang, 2010. "Can the New Keynesian Phillips Curve explain inflation gap persistence?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-030, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2010-030
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation gap persistence; Trend inflation; New Keynesian Phillips curve; Hazard function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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