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Euro area inflation and a new measure of core inflation

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  • Claudio Morana

    (Center for European Studies, University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis; CeRP, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy)

Abstract

This paper introduces a new decomposition of euro area headline inflation into core, cyclical, and residual components. Our new core inflation measure, the structural core inflation rate, is the expected headline inflation, conditional to medium to long-term demand and supply-side developments. It shows smoothness and trending properties, economic content, and forecasting ability for headline inflation and other available core inflation measures routinely used at the ECB for internal or external communication. Hence, it carries additional helpful information for policy-making decisions. Concerning recent developments, all the inflation components contributed to its post-pandemic upsurge. Since mid-2021, core inflation has been downward, landing at about 3% in 2022. Cyclical and residual inflation -associated with idiosyncratic supply chains, energy markets, and geopolitical tensions- are currently the major threats to price stability. While some cyclical stabilization is ongoing, a stagflation scenario cum weakening overall financial conditions might emerge. A pressing issue for ECB monetary policy will be to face -mostly supply-side- inflationary pressure without triggering a financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Morana, 2022. "Euro area inflation and a new measure of core inflation," Working Paper series 22-14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Nov 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:22-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    headline inflation; core inflation; Russia’s war in Ukraine; COVID-19 pandemic; sovereign debt crisis; subprime financial crisis; dot-com bubble; euro area; ECB monetary policy; trend-cycle decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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