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Evolution of Monetary Policy in Peru: An Empirical Application Using a Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Model
[Metas de Inflación en Una Economía Dolarizada: La Experencia Del Perú]

Author

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  • Jhonatan Portilla
  • Gabriel Rodríguez
  • Paul Castillo B.

Abstract

This article discusses the evolution of monetary policy (MP) in Peru in 1996Q1–2019Q4 using a mixture innovation time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (VAR) model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) as proposed by Koop, Leon-Gonzales and Strachan. The main empirical results are: (i) the VAR coefficients and volatilities change more gradually than the contemporaneous coefficients over time; (ii) the volatility of MP shocks was higher under the pre-Inflation Targeting (IT) regime; (iii) a surprise increase in the interest rate produces gross domestic product (GDP) growth falls and reduces inflation in the long run; (iv) the interest rate reacts more quickly to aggregate supply shocks than to aggregate demand shocks; (v) MP shocks explain a high percentage of domestic variables behavior under the pre-IT regime but their contribution decreases under the IT regime. Overall, these results show that MP has contributed in Peru to lower macroeconomic volatility by (i) reducing average long-term inflation, (ii) increasing the response of GDP growth rate to interest rate, and (iii) by becoming more predictable. (JEL codes: C11, C32, and E52).

Suggested Citation

  • Jhonatan Portilla & Gabriel Rodríguez & Paul Castillo B., 2022. "Evolution of Monetary Policy in Peru: An Empirical Application Using a Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Model [Metas de Inflación en Una Economía Dolarizada: La Experencia Del Perú]," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 68(1), pages 98-126.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:68:y:2022:i:1:p:98-126.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifab013
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brenda Guevara & Gabriel Rodríguez & Lorena Yamuca Salvatierra, 2024. "External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Evidence using Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2024-529, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    2. Flavio Pérez Rojo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Jane Haldimand Marcet: Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Peruvian Economy Over Time," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-523, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    3. Paulo Chávez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 505-544, May.
    4. Junior A. Ojeda Cunya & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2022. "Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR- SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-507, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    5. Lokendra Kumawat, 2024. "Time-variation in response of inflation to monetary policy shocks in India: evidence from TVP-VAR models," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 233-248, June.
    6. Jiménez, Alvaro & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2023. "Time-varying impact of fiscal shocks over GDP growth in Peru: An empirical application using hybrid TVP-VAR-SV models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 314-332.
    7. Mauricio Alvarado & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2024. "Time-Varying Effects of Financial Uncertainty Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2024-531, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    8. Gabriel Rodriguez & Paul Castillo B. & Junior A. Ojeda Cunya, 2024. "Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 1015-1050, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; TVP-VAR-SV; Bayesian estimation; mixture innovation model; peruvian economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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