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Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Bouvatier

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Antonia Lopez Villavicencio
  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper explores whether the procyclicality of private credit changes during the business cycle. To this end, we rely on the estimation of smooth transition regression models for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the 1986–2010 period. Our findings show that credit procyclicality is nonlinear, depending on economic conditions. More specifically, credit is highly procyclical in extreme – booms and busts – regimes in Canada, the UK and the US, while procyclicality is less pronounced in one or both extreme regimes in Australia, Belgium, France, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Spain. Our results also emphasize the importance of financial factors in explaining the short-run behavior of private credit.
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Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Bouvatier & Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2014. "Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality," Post-Print hal-01385908, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01385908
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    2. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Pawłowska, Małgorzata & Szafrański, Grzegorz, 2020. "Market structure and credit procyclicality: Lessons from loan markets in the European Union banking sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 27-50.
    3. Claire-Océane Chevallier, 2017. "Empirical Investigation of the Effect of Bank Long Term Debt on Loans and Output in the Euro-zone," DEM Discussion Paper Series 17-04, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    4. Mohammed Mizanur Rahman & Munni Begum & Badar Nadeem Ashraf & Md. Abdul Kaium Masud, 2020. "Does Trade Openness Affect Bank Risk-Taking Behavior? Evidence from BRICS Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-30, September.
    5. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2018. "Do trade and financial openness matter for financial development? Bank-level evidence from emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 434-458.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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