IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/econom/v81y2014i322p293-310.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Do Energy Prices Tell Us About UK Inflation?

Author

Listed:
  • Sohrab Rafiq

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ecca12076-abs-0001"> We investigate the effect of oil price shocks on UK inflation using a time-varying vector autoregression with stochastic volatility. The estimates show that the oil price–inflation pass-through declined from the early 1980s until the mid/late 1990s. Post-2003, however, the importance of oil price shocks for UK inflation rose significantly. The rise in the pass-through coincided with a significant increase in the size of oil price shocks. This paper shows that allowing for time variation in the stochastic volatilities better captures time variation between oil prices and UK inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sohrab Rafiq, 2014. "What Do Energy Prices Tell Us About UK Inflation?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 293-310, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:81:y:2014:i:322:p:293-310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecca.2014.81.issue-322
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    2. Todd E. Clark & Stephen J. Terry, 2010. "Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1419-1433, October.
    3. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Jun).
    4. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    5. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "Dynamics of the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 363, Bank of England.
    6. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
    9. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    10. Luca Benati, 2008. "The "Great Moderation" in the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 121-147, February.
    11. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2009. "The long-run determinants of UK wages, 1860-2004," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 5-28, March.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    13. Canova, Fabio & Nicoló, Gianni De, 2000. "Stock Returns, Term Structure, Inflation, And Real Activity: An International Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 343-372, September.
    14. Bruce McGough, 2006. "Shocking Escapes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 507-528, April.
    15. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman & -, 2010. "Sources of the Volatility Puzzle in the Crude Oil Market," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/634, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    17. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    19. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    20. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
    21. Benati, Luca, 2010. "Evolving Phillips trade-off," Working Paper Series 1176, European Central Bank.
    22. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    23. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-577, November.
    24. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
    25. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    26. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Changes in the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from a time-varying factor-augmented VAR," Bank of England working papers 401, Bank of England.
    27. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, March.
    28. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Zheng & Zhou, Bo & Hensher, David A., 2022. "Forecasting automobile gasoline demand in Australia using machine learning-based regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    2. Tian, Shuairu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2016. "Time-varying price shock transmission and volatility spillover in foreign exchange, bond, equity, and commodity markets: Evidence from the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 163-171.
    3. Mr. Sohrab Rafiq, 2015. "How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?," IMF Working Papers 2015/094, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Liu, Xueyong & An, Haizhong & Li, Huajiao & Chen, Zhihua & Feng, Sida & Wen, Shaobo, 2017. "Features of spillover networks in international financial markets: Evidence from the G20 countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 265-278.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    2. Todd E. Clark & Stephen J. Terry, 2010. "Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1419-1433, October.
    3. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    4. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2010. "The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Ana Gómez-Loscos & Mar𨀠 Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañ鳠, 2012. "Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: are the 1970s coming back?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4575-4589, December.
    6. Abdurrahman Nazif Çatik & Mehmet Karaçuka & A. Özlem Önder, 2022. "The Time-Varying Impact of External Shocks on the Consumer Price Components: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(4), pages 781-807, December.
    7. Archanskaïa, Elizaveta & Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2012. "The nature of oil shocks and the global economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 509-520.
    8. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2017. "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1774-1793, April.
    9. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Cunado, Juncal & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Oil price-inflation pass-through in the United States over 1871 to 2018: A wavelet coherency analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-55.
    10. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes in a New Keynesian Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 1709E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    11. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente, 2020. "Inflation, oil price volatility and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Rondina, Francesca, 2012. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the US postwar policy response to oil prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1009-1041.
    13. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
    14. Marwa Elsherif, 2024. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 51-69, May.
    15. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    16. Peersman, Gert & Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1532-1547.
    17. Hahn, Elke & Mestre, Ricardo, 2011. "The role of oil prices in the euro area economy since the 1970s," Working Paper Series 1356, European Central Bank.
    18. Alessia Campolmi, 2008. "Oil price shocks: Demand vs Supply in a two-country model," MNB Working Papers 2008/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    19. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Alan S. Blinder & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2013. "The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 119-175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:81:y:2014:i:322:p:293-310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.