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Financial market illiquidity shocks and macroeconomic dynamics: Evidence from the UK

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  • Ellington, Michael

Abstract

We examine the link between financial market illiquidity and macroeconomic dynamics by fitting a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility to UK data from 1988Q1 to 2016Q4. We capture liquidity conditions in the stock market using a battery of illiquidity proxies. This paper departs from previous studies examining macro-financial linkages by using theoretically grounded sign restrictions, and conducting structural inference in a non-linear framework. We document both statistically significant differences in the transmission of these shocks, and substantial increases in the economic importance of these shocks during the 2008 recession.

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  • Ellington, Michael, 2018. "Financial market illiquidity shocks and macroeconomic dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 225-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:89:y:2018:i:c:p:225-236
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.02.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana, 2020. "Measuring the multi-faceted dimension of liquidity in financial markets: A literature review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Múnera, Daimer J. & Agudelo, Diego A., 2022. "Who moved my liquidity? Liquidity evaporation in emerging markets in periods of financial uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2019. "Global liquidity, money growth and UK inflation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-74.
    4. Abudy, Menachem Meni, 2020. "Retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Baruník, Jozef & Ellington, Michael, 2024. "Persistence in financial connectedness and systemic risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 393-407.
    6. Cotter, John & Hallam, Mark & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2023. "Macro-financial spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2021. "On the economic impact of aggregate liquidity shocks: The case of the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 737-752.
    8. Inekwe, John Nkwoma, 2020. "Liquidity connectedness and output synchronisation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Saumya Ranjan Dash & Debasish Maitra & Byomakesh Debata & Jitendra Mahakud, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity: Evidence from G7 countries," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 611-626, June.
    10. Ellington, Michael & Fu, Xi & Zhu, Yunyi, 2023. "Real estate illiquidity and returns: A time-varying regional perspective," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 58-72.
    11. Priyanka Naik & Y. V. Reddy, 2021. "Stock Market Liquidity: A Literature Review," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440209, January.
    12. Chia‐Yi Yen & Yu‐Hsi Chou, 2020. "Understanding The Macroeconomic Impact Of Illiquidity Shocks In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1245-1278, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market illiquidity; Time-varying parameter VAR; Macro-financial linkages; Sign restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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