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Endogeneity of Inflation Target

Author

Listed:
  • Soyoung Kim

    (Department of Economics, Seoul National University)

  • Geunhyung Yim

    (Economic Research Institute, The Bank of Korea)

Abstract

Under inflation targeting, central banks set an inflation target in advance and then try to make an actual inflation hit the target. However, central banks may have an incentive to adjust the target to actual inflation rates such as past inflation rates, to make the actual inflation rate close to the target. This paper examines this issue of "endogeneity of inflation target" by using various empirical methods with the sample of 19 inflation targeting countries. Empirical results show that an inflation rate has significantly positive effect on the inflation target of the next period. Empirical results further suggest that this endogeneity of the inflation target is found more strongly in central banks with low credibility or weak performance than in central banks with high credibility or strong performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Soyoung Kim & Geunhyung Yim, 2016. "Endogeneity of Inflation Target," Working Papers 2016-18, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    • Handle: RePEc:bok:wpaper:1618
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2021. "Does communication influence executives’ opinion of central bank policy?☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Inflation rate; Inflation target; Endogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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