Joint Prediction Bands for Macroeconomic Risk Management
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Farooq Akram & Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Joint prediction bands for macroeconomic risk management," Working Paper 2016/7, Norges Bank.
References listed on IDEAS
- Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003.
"Modest policy interventions,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 1999. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Schorfheide, Frank & Shin, Minchul, 2017.
"Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 322-332.
- Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2015. "Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 May 2015.
- Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2016. "Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 22615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Schorfheide, Frank & Shin, Minchul, 2017. "Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility," CFS Working Paper Series 577, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Robertson, John C & Tallman, Ellis W & Whiteman, Charles H, 2005.
"Forecasting Using Relative Entropy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 383-401, June.
- John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Forecasting using relative entropy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016.
"Implementing the zero lower bound in an estimated regime-switching DSGE model,"
Working Paper
2016/3, Norges Bank.
- Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Implementing the Zero Lower Bound in an Estimated Regime-Switching DSGE Model," Working Papers No 3/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010.
"Path forecast evaluation,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 635-662.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Jordà , Òscar, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/34, European University Institute.
- Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 131, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000.
"Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Garratt, Anthony & Kevin Lee & M Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Forecast Uncertainties In Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 82, Royal Economic Society.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 345, CESifo.
- Junior Maih, 2010. "Conditional forecasts in DSGE models," Working Paper 2010/07, Norges Bank.
- Cogley, Timothy & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005.
"Bayesian fan charts for U.K. inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1893-1925, November.
- Cogley, Timothy W. & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Bayesian fan charts for UK inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/44, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
- Maik H. Wolters, 2015.
"Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 74-96, January.
- Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," MPRA Paper 36147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," IMFS Working Paper Series 59, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Wolters, Maik H., 2013. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 2013-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Wolters, Maik H., 2011.
"Forecasting under Model Uncertainty,"
VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis
48723, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," MPRA Paper 36147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Wolters, Maik H., 2013. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 2013-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laséen & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani, 2005. "Are Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Policy Interventions? Evidence from a Dynamic Open‐Economy Model," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 509-544, December.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983.
"Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,"
NBER Working Papers
1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013.
"Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation,"
Working Paper
2013/24, Norges Bank.
- Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markow-Switching Structural Investigation," Working Papers No 9/2013, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Eric Leeper, 2003. "An "Inflation Reports" Report," NBER Working Papers 10089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Are Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Interventions? Evidence from an Estimated Open Economy DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 180, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Hugo Gerard & Kristoffer Nimark, 2008.
"Combining Multivariate Density Forecasts Using Predictive Criteria,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp2008-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Hugo Gerard & Kristoffer Nimark, 2008. "Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria," Economics Working Papers 1117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008.
- Dag Kolsrud, 2015. "A Time‐Simultaneous Prediction Box for a Multivariate Time Series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 675-693, December.
- Junior Maih, 2014.
"Efficient Perturbation Methods for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models,"
Working Papers
No 10/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Junior Maih, 2015. "Efficient perturbation methods for solving regime-switching DSGE models," Working Paper 2015/01, Norges Bank.
- Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2012. "Bootstrap joint prediction regions," ECON - Working Papers 064, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2013.
- Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- repec:gei:journl:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:75-101 is not listed on IDEAS
- Syed Tehseen Jawaid, Abdul Waheed, 2017. "Uncertainty and Risk Analysis of Pakistan's Regional Trade: Fan Chart Approach," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 4(1), pages 55-81, March.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Pär Österholm, 2009.
"Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(2), pages 387-415, June.
- Österholm, Pär, 2006. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Working Paper Series 2006:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Pär Österholm, 2006. "Incorporating judgement in fan charts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Forecast uncertainty in the neighborhood of the effective lower bound: How much asymmetry should we expect?," Working Paper 2016/13, Norges Bank.
- Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
- Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017.
"Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
- Fabian Kr ger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers No 8/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Todd E. Clark & Fabian Krueger & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers (Old Series) 1439, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Krüger, Fabian & Clark, Todd E. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113077, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Stocker,Marc & Some,Modeste Y., 2016. "Quantifying uncertainties in global growth forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7770, The World Bank.
- Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015.
"Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Open Access publications 10197/7588, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016.
"Implementing the zero lower bound in an estimated regime-switching DSGE model,"
Working Paper
2016/3, Norges Bank.
- Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Implementing the Zero Lower Bound in an Estimated Regime-Switching DSGE Model," Working Papers No 3/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
- Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019.
"State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes,"
Research Technical Papers
4/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Working Papers 882, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Negro, Marco Del & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013.
"DSGE Model-Based Forecasting,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 57-140,
Elsevier.
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "DSGE model-based forecasting," Staff Reports 554, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020.
"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2018. "Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1809, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017.
"Solving endogenous regime switching models,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
- Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2016. "Solving Endogenous Regime Switching Models," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03393181, HAL.
- Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2016. "Solving Endogenous Regime Switching Models," Working Papers hal-03393181, HAL.
- Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2017. "Solving Endogenous Regime Switching Models," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03945922, HAL.
- Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2017. "Solving Endogenous Regime Switching Models," Post-Print hal-03945922, HAL.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018.
"Bayesian Vector Autoregressions,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Working Papers hal-03458277, HAL.
- Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers 1808, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458277, HAL.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 756, Bank of England.
- Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- repec:wrk:wrkemf:10 is not listed on IDEAS
- Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022.
"What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
- Max Breitenlechner & Georgios Georgiadis & Ben Schumann, 2021. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Working Papers 2021-05, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
- Max Breitenlechner & Georgios Georgiadis & Ben Schumann, 2021. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_003, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
- Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Working Paper Series 2613, European Central Bank.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003.
"Modest policy interventions,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 1999. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Schorfheide, Frank & Shin, Minchul, 2017.
"Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 322-332.
- Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2015. "Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 May 2015.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Schorfheide, Frank & Shin, Minchul, 2017. "Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility," CFS Working Paper Series 577, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2016. "Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 22615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2020.
"Constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of VAR models – A review,"
Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 69-83.
- Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2018. "Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions of VAR Models: A Review," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1762, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2018. "Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions of VAR Models - A Review," Lodz Economics Working Papers 4/2018, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
- Reif Magnus, 2021.
"Macroeconomic uncertainty and forecasting macroeconomic aggregates,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-20, April.
- Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
More about this item
Keywords
Monetary Policy; Fan charts; DSGE; Zero Lower Bound; Regime-switching; Bayesian Estimation;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-DGE-2016-05-14 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-ECM-2016-05-14 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2016-05-14 (Forecasting)
- NEP-RMG-2016-05-14 (Risk Management)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Helene Olsen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cambino.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.