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The contractionary effects of tax shocks on productivity: An empirical and theoretical analysis

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  • Hussain, Syed Muhammad

Abstract

I analyze the effects of tax policy changes on US Total Factor Productivity. VAR estimates show that permanent and exogenous tax increases have strong, permanent, and negative effects on TFP which represent about 80% of change in output following the tax increase. I then build a DSGE model which has learning-by-doing and endogenous TFP evolution. The benchmark model is able to replicate the empirical impulse responses. However, when I calibrate the model as in the literature, the effect of taxes on TFP is substantially less elastic than in the data. I argue that this divergence may arise because tax changes labeled as exogenous can give spurious results or because of a mis-specified model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hussain, Syed Muhammad, 2015. "The contractionary effects of tax shocks on productivity: An empirical and theoretical analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 93-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:93-107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.09.006
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lahura, Erick & Castillo, Giovana, 2018. "El efecto de cambios tributarios sobre la actividad económica en Perú: Una aplicación del enfoque narrativo," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 36, pages 31-53.
    3. Hussain Syed M. & Liu Lin, 2018. "Comparing the effects of discretionary tax changes between the US and the UK," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, January.
    4. Yousef Abdel Jawad & Shaker Zabada, 2019. "Impact of Taxes and Fees on the Productivity of the Palestinian Industrial Sector," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 162-167.
    5. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Jacob, Martin & Schneider, Kerstin, 2023. "Do tax incentives affect investment quality?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Baoqing Tang & Bo Gao & Jing Ma, 2021. "The impact of export VAT rebates on firm productivity: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2798-2820, October.
    7. Hussain, Syed M. & Malik, Samreen, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Exogenous Tax Changes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 268-300.
    8. Hongsheng Fang & Xufei Zhang & Lin Guo, 2023. "Productivity effects of corporate income tax: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1815-1842, June.
    9. Mario Coccia, 2018. "Optimization in R&D intensity and tax on corporate profits for supporting labor productivity of nations," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 792-814, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TFP; Taxes; VAR; DSGE; Learning by doing; Endogenous TFP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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