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Research and development, profits and firm value: a structural estimation

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Abstract

Is the return to private R&D as high as believed? This study identifies a flaw in the production function approach to estimating the return to R&D. I provide new estimates based on a structural estimation approach that incorporates uncertainty about the outcome from R&D. The results shed light on the rate of innovation, the impact of an innovation on profits, and the market value of the R&D stock. The parameter estimates imply a mean return to R&D of 3.7-5.5%, much lower than previous values. The analysis also demonstrates the unsuitability of using the return to R&D as a basis for policy decisions on tax subsidies to R&D.

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  • Missaka Warusawitharana, 2008. "Research and development, profits and firm value: a structural estimation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-52
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    3. Bernardo Morais, 2015. "Risk, Financial Development and Firm Dynamics," International Finance Discussion Papers 1134, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Olubanjo Michael Adetunji & Akintola Amos Owolabi, 2016. "Firm Performance and Its Drivers: How Important Are the Industry and Firm-Level Factors?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(11), pages 60-77, November.
    5. Andrei, Daniel & Mann, William & Moyen, Nathalie, 2019. "Why did the q theory of investment start working?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 251-272.
    6. Huang, Chia-Hui & Hou, Tony Chieh-Tse, 2019. "Innovation, research and development, and firm profitability in Taiwan: Causality and determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 385-394.
    7. Begenau, Juliane & Palazzo, Berardino, 2021. "Firm selection and corporate cash holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 697-718.
    8. Wu, Sheng & Zhou, Xiaoyong, 2024. "A theoretical framework for modeling dual-track granting orientation in green credit policy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 249-268.
    9. Olubanjo Adetunji & Akintola Owolabi, 2016. "Firm Performance and Its Drivers: How Important Are the Industry and Firm-Level Factors?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(11), pages 1-60, November.
    10. Josheski, Dushko & Magdinceva Sopova, Marija, 2013. "Market value of the firms and R&D investment: Theoretical overview and empirical estimation for the panel of countries," EconStor Preprints 68488, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Bakke, Tor-Erik & Gu, Tiantian, 2017. "Diversification and cash dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 580-601.
    12. Zaineb Hlioui & Mohamed Gabsi & Abdelwahed Omri, 2022. "Informal Competition Effect on SMEs’ Innovation: Do Credit Constraints Matter? Evidence from Eastern European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, October.
    13. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Whited, Toni M., 2012. "Dynamic Models and Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 6(1–2), pages 1-163, November.
    14. Tat Dat Bui & Mohd Helmi Ali & Feng Ming Tsai & Mohammad Iranmanesh & Ming-Lang Tseng & Ming K Lim, 2020. "Challenges and Trends in Sustainable Corporate Finance: A Bibliometric Systematic Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-26, October.
    15. Yu, Lin & Liu, Xiaoquan & Fung, Hung-Gay & Leung, Wai Kin, 2020. "Size and value effects in high-tech industries: The role of R&D investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Chinloy, Peter & Jiang, Cheng & John, Kose, 2020. "Investment, depreciation and obsolescence of R&D," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    17. Johnson, Travis L. & Swem, Nathan, 2021. "Reputation and investor activism: A structural approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 29-56.
    18. Katerina Lyroudi & Thomas Chatzigagios, 2021. "Does Innovation Lead to Growth? An SDG for Companies in the Black Sea Markets Before and After COVID-19," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(2), pages 151-179.
    19. Christodoulou, Demetris & Lev, Baruch & Ma, Le, 2018. "The productivity of Chinese patents: The role of business area and ownership type," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 107-124.
    20. Shuangling, Zhao & Guohua, Cao & Lijuan, Wu, 2019. "Tangible and intangible investment in corporate finance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    21. Pinchetti, Marco, 2020. "What Is Driving The TFP Slowdown? Insights From a Schumpeterian DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98316, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Research and development; Rate of return;

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