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A note on expectational stability under non-zero trend inflation

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  • Kobayashi, Teruyoshi
  • Muto, Ichiro

Abstract

This study examines the expectational stability of the rational expectations equilibria (REE) under alternative Taylor rules when trend inflation is non-zero. We find that when trend inflation is high, the REE is likely to be expectationally unstable. This result holds true regardless of the nature of the data (such as contemporaneous data, forecast, and lagged data) introduced in the Taylor rule. Our results suggest that a high macroeconomic volatility during the period of high trend inflation can be well explained by introducing the concept of expectational stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Kobayashi, Teruyoshi & Muto, Ichiro, 2010. "A note on expectational stability under non-zero trend inflation," MPRA Paper 22952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22952
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2017. "Transparency, expectations anchoring and inflation target," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 261-273.
    2. Weber, Henning, 2011. "Optimal inflation and firms' productivity dynamics," Kiel Working Papers 1685, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2015. "Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation," Research Working Paper RWP 15-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 200-229.
    5. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2017. "Trend Inflation And Equilibrium Stability: Firm-Specific Versus Homogeneous Labor," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 947-981, June.
    6. Abhishek Das & Arpita Ghose & Gautam Gupta, 2016. "Role of monetary policy in a New Keynesian economy: a note from a laboratory experiment," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 204-216, July.
    7. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 255-274, July.
    8. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
    9. Ikeda, Taro, 2014. "Asymmetric preferences in real-time learning and the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 487-489.
    10. Muto, Ichiro, 2011. "Monetary policy and learning from the central bank's forecast," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 52-66, January.
    11. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    12. Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2017. "A Note On Trend Growth And Learning About Monetary Policy Rules In A Two-Block World Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 243-258, January.
    13. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2014. "Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 241-256.
    14. By Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2015. "Learning the monetary/fiscal interaction under trend inflation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 1146-1164.
    15. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "Trend inflation, sticky prices, and expectational stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 175-187.
    16. Hasui, Kohei, 2020. "A Note On Robust Monetary Policy And Non-Zero Trend Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1574-1594, September.
    17. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2014. "A pitfall of expectational stability analysis," Research Working Paper RWP 14-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    18. Weber, Henning, 2012. "The optimal inflation rate and firm-level productivity growth," Kiel Working Papers 1773, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    adaptive learning; E-stability; Taylor rule; trend inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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