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Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap

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  • Pym Manopimoke

Abstract

Globalization has been suggested to increase the sensitivity of domestic inflation to global economic conditions. This paper develops an unobserved components model that is consistent with an open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), and finds that a global output gap has replaced the domestic output gap as the key driving variable for inflation in 17 advanced and emerging countries, particularly since the year 2000. The cross country analysis also suggests that the influence of the global output gap for national price movements is positively correlated to a country's degree of openness in trade. Upon the inclusion of import and oil prices to the NKPC specification, the global output gap remains a significant driving variable for inflation, suggesting that the global output gap matters for inflation beyond the traditional import price channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:pui:dpaper:8
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    Cited by:

    1. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1755, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    4. Jašová, Martina & Moessner, Richhild & Takáts, Előd, 2020. "Domestic and global output gaps as inflation drivers: What does the Phillips curve tell?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 238-253.
    5. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    6. Mustafa Kocoglu, 2023. "Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2825-2853, August.
    7. Lei Lv & Zhixin Liu & Yingying Xu, 2019. "Technological progress, globalization and low-inflation: Evidence from the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Globalization; New Keynesian Phillips Curve; Output Gap; Unobserved Components Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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