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Heterogeneous effects in the international transmission of the US monetary policy: a factor-augmented VAR perspective

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  • Anastasios Evgenidis

    (Newcastle University London)

  • Dionisis Philippas

    (ESSCA School of Management)

  • Costas Siriopoulos

    (Zayed University)

Abstract

This paper analyses the international transmission of US monetary policy shocks. We use a time-varying, factor-augmented VAR framework to examine how and to what extent the propagation of US policy shocks affects the South East Asian (SEA) and European Union (EU) economies, through various transmission channels. We find that in the SEA economies, the income absorption effect is the most pronounced channel as indicated by the significant worsening of the trade balance of these countries, which provokes a reduction in their output. In addition, wealth effects and the balance sheet channel have an important contribution in the transmission of the shock to these economies. In the EU, the initial rise observed in output as a result of the shock is driven more by exchange rate movements rather than movements in the trade balance. In terms of changes in the magnitude of the effect of the shock over time, we find that the deepening of global integration dampens the effect of the shock on the foreign economies in core macroeconomic and financial variables. Moreover, the impact of the shock on the foreign economies has increased in the post-crisis period.

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  • Anastasios Evgenidis & Dionisis Philippas & Costas Siriopoulos, 2019. "Heterogeneous effects in the international transmission of the US monetary policy: a factor-augmented VAR perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1549-1579, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:56:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1448-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1448-1
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    Cited by:

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    2. Deepika Krishnan & Vishal Dagar, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Stock Markets During Trade Conflicts in the USA, China, and India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 185-203, May.
    3. Tomoo Inoue & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2022. "How does unconventional monetary policy affect the global financial markets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1013-1036, March.
    4. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Salachas, Evangelos, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy and the credit channel in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    5. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Emmanouil Sofianos, 2022. "Forecasting unemployment in the euro area with machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 551-566, April.
    6. Dimitris Kenourgios & Despoina Ntaikou, 2021. "ECB’s unconventional monetary policy and bank lending supply and performance in the euro area," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 211-224, April.
    7. De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2024. "The transmission of U.S. monetary policy to small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Gan‐Ochir Doojav & Davaasukh Damdinjav, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policies in a commodity‐exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4627-4654, October.
    9. Wang, Xiaoran & Ibrahim, Haslindar, 2024. "Unveiling the effects of mineral markets, fintech and governance on business performance: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Transmission channels; Factor-augmented VAR; Bayesian techniques; Time-varying parameters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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