IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v37y2014icp127-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality

Author

Listed:
  • Bouvatier, Vincent
  • López-Villavicencio, Antonia
  • Mignon, Valérie

Abstract

This paper explores whether the procyclicality of private credit changes during the business cycle. To this end, we rely on the estimation of smooth transition regression models for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the 1986–2010 period. Our findings show that credit procyclicality is nonlinear, depending on economic conditions. More specifically, credit is highly procyclical in extreme – booms and busts – regimes in Canada, the UK and the US, while procyclicality is less pronounced in one or both extreme regimes in Australia, Belgium, France, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Spain. Our results also emphasize the importance of financial factors in explaining the short-run behavior of private credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:37:y:2014:i:c:p:127-136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.10.027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313004549
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.10.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann & Miguel Segoviano, 2004. "Bank Regulation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 20(4), pages 591-615, Winter.
    2. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Does the banking sector structure matter for credit procyclicality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1035-1044.
    3. Hansen, Jan, 2003. "Financial Cycles and Bankruptcies in the Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 149, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. G. B. Gorton & Ping He, 2008. "Bank Credit Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(4), pages 1181-1214.
    5. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    6. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    7. Boris Hofmann, 2004. "The Determinants of Bank Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 203-234, July.
    8. Luc Laeven & Fabián Valencia, 2013. "The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions during Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 147-177, February.
    9. William R. White, 2006. "Procyclicality in the financial system: do we need a new macrofinancial stabilisation framework?," BIS Working Papers 193, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    11. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
    13. Frömmel, Michael & Schmidt, Torsten, 2006. "Bank Lending and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," RWI Discussion Papers 42, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    14. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    15. Jan Kakes, 2000. "Monetary Transmission in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1947.
    16. Leonardo Gambacorta & Carlotta Rossi, 2007. "Modelling bank lending in the euro area: A non-linear approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 650, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    18. Pedersen, Torben Mark, 2001. "The Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Slutzky effect, and the distortionary effect of filters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1081-1101, August.
    19. Markus Eller & Michael Frömmel & Nora Srzentic, 2010. "Private Sector Credit in CESEE: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 50-78.
    20. Teräsvirta, Timo, 1996. "Smooth Transition Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 132, Stockholm School of Economics.
    21. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, Joao, 2006. "Credit in the euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 211-226, May.
    22. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    23. Englund, Peter, 1999. "The Swedish Banking Crisis: Roots and Consequences," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 80-97, Autumn.
    24. Étienne Bordeleau & Allan Crawford & Christopher Graham, 2009. "Regulatory Constraints on Bank Leverage: Issues and Lessons from the Canadian Experience," Discussion Papers 09-15, Bank of Canada.
    25. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    26. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    27. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Badarau, Cristina & Carias, Marcos & Figuet, Jean-Marc, 2020. "Cross-border spillovers of macroprudential policy in the Euro area," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Pawłowska, Małgorzata & Szafrański, Grzegorz, 2020. "Market structure and credit procyclicality: Lessons from loan markets in the European Union banking sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 27-50.
    3. Claire-Océane Chevallier, 2017. "Empirical Investigation of the Effect of Bank Long Term Debt on Loans and Output in the Euro-zone," DEM Discussion Paper Series 17-04, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    4. Mohammed Mizanur Rahman & Munni Begum & Badar Nadeem Ashraf & Md. Abdul Kaium Masud, 2020. "Does Trade Openness Affect Bank Risk-Taking Behavior? Evidence from BRICS Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-30, September.
    5. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2018. "Do trade and financial openness matter for financial development? Bank-level evidence from emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 434-458.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Does the banking sector structure matter for credit procyclicality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1035-1044.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    4. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    5. Kok, Christoffer & Rossi, Carlotta & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2009. "Modelling loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area," Working Paper Series 989, European Central Bank.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of regional housing prices in the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(22), pages 2259-2277, May.
    7. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 371-392.
    8. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    9. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Excessive Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers in Basel III: An Empirical Evidence from Central and East European Countries," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 6(2), pages 91-107.
    10. Krainer, Robert E., 2014. "Monetary policy and bank lending in the Euro area: Is there a stock market channel or an interest rate channel?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 283-298.
    11. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Shah, Zahra B., 2011. "An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 891-899, May.
    12. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 112-122, Czech National Bank.
    13. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Financial Stability," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 809-832, August.
    14. Miroslav Plašil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlaváč, 2016. "A New Measure of the Financial Cycle: Application to the Czech Republic," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 296-318, July.
    15. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An Assessment of Basel II Procyclicality in Mortgage Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-101, October.
    16. Liu, Jingyang & Kool, Clemens J.M., 2018. "Money and credit overhang in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 622-633.
    17. Miroslav Plasil & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac, 2015. "In the Quest of Measuring the Financial Cycle," Working Papers 2015/05, Czech National Bank.
    18. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 132-144.
    19. Michiel Bijlsma & Wim Suyker, 2008. "The credit crisis and the Dutch economy... in eight frequently asked questions," CPB Memorandum 210.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Yannick Lucotte & Nicolas Reigl, 2022. "The evolution and heterogeneity of credit procyclicality in Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 911-942, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit cycle; Business cycle; Nonlinearity; Smooth transition regression models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:37:y:2014:i:c:p:127-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.