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Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors

Author

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  • Yunjong Eo

    (Korea University; Department of Economics; Anam-dong, Sungbuk-gu; Seoul 02841)

  • Luis Uzeda

    (Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington Ave W, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0H9, Canada)

  • Benjamin Wong

    (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Caulfield East, VIC 3145, Australia)

Abstract

We distinguish between the goods and services sectors in an unobserved components model of U.S. inflation. We find that prior to the early 1990s, both sectors contributed to volatility of aggregate trend inflation, while since then, this has been predominantly driven by the services sector, with the trend in goods inflation being essentially flat. We document that the large reduction in the volatility of the trend for goods inflation has been the most important driver of the decline in the volatility in aggregate trend inflation reported by Stock and Watson (2007). Our results appear robust to COVID- 19 inflation developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2023. "Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors," Discussion Paper Series 2301, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    • Handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:2301
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    File URL: http://econ.korea.ac.kr/~ri/WorkingPapers/w2301.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hie Joo Ahn & Matteo Luciani, 2021. "Relative prices and pure inflation since the mid-1990s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-069, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    3. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2021/17, Norges Bank.
    4. Ascari, Guido & Fosso, Luca, 2024. "The international dimension of trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    5. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2022. "Global Stagflation," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2204, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    6. Jackson, Ilya & Ivanov, Dmitry, 2023. "A beautiful shock? Exploring the impact of pandemic shocks on the accuracy of AI forecasting in the beauty care industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
    8. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & James (Jim) C. MacGee & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation," Discussion Papers 2023-3, Bank of Canada.
    9. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Dora Xia & Egon Zakrajšek, 2021. "Monetary policy, relative prices and inflation control: flexibility born out of success," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sectoral trend inflation; unobserved components model; disaggregated inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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