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Coupled Climate-Economic Modes in the Sahel's Interannual Variability

Author

Listed:
  • Vivien Sainte Fare Garnot

    (ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Andreas Groth

    (AOS - Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Los Angeles] - UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California)

  • Michael Ghil

    (ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, AOS - Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Los Angeles] - UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California, LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

Abstract

We study the influence of interannual climate variability on the economy of several countries in the Sahel region. In the agricultural sector, we are able to identify coupled climate-economic modes that are statistically significant on interannual time scales. In particular, precipitation is a key climatic factor for agriculture in this semi-arid region. Locality and diversity characterize the Sahel's climatic and economic system, with the coupled climate-economic patterns exhibiting substantial differences from country to country. Large-scale atmospheric patterns — like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and its quasi-biennial and quasi-quadrennial oscillatory modes — have quite limited influence on the economies, while more location-specific rainfall patterns play an important role.

Suggested Citation

  • Vivien Sainte Fare Garnot & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2018. "Coupled Climate-Economic Modes in the Sahel's Interannual Variability," Post-Print hal-01855370, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01855370
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.07.006
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01855370v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Chen, Yongfei & Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "The impacts of El Niño-southern oscillation on renewable energy stock markets: Evidence from quantile perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).

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    Keywords

    Climate impacts on the economy; Sahel climate; Climate cycles; Advanced spectral methods; Business cycles;
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