Estimating potential output using business survey data in a svar framework
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Cesaroni, Tatiana, 2008. "Estimating potential output using business survey data in a SVAR framework," MPRA Paper 16324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
References listed on IDEAS
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002.
"The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
- Pierre St-Amant & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
- Simon van Norden, 1995. "Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?," Macroeconomics 9506001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999.
"Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Iris Claus, 2003. "Estimating potential output for New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 751-760.
- Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
- Tatiana Cesaroni, 2011.
"The cyclical behavior of the Italian business survey data,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 747-768, December.
- Tatiana Cesaroni, 2007. "Inspecting the cyclical properties of the Italian Manufacturing Business survey data," ISAE Working Papers 83, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
- A'Hearn, Brian & Woitek, Ulrich, 2001. "More international evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 321-346, April.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995.
"Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
- Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Jérôme Creel & Maurizio Iacopetta, 2015.
"Macroeconomic policy and potential growth,"
SciencePo Working papers Main
hal-03459896, HAL.
- Jérôme Creel & Maurizio Iacopetta, 2015. "Macroeconomic policy and potential growth," Working Papers hal-03459896, HAL.
- Jérôme Creel & Maurizio Iacopetta, 2015. "Macroeconomic Policy and potential growth," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2015-15, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Mahmood-ul-Hasan Khan, 2008.
"Short Run Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Monetary Policy: Interpreting Macroeconomic Dynamics in Pakistan,"
SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 4, pages 1-30.
- Mahmood ul Hasan Khan, 2008. "Short-Run Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Monetary Policy: Interpreting Macroeconomic Dynamics in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 22, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3d1rt55ran82d86guhaponket6 is not listed on IDEAS
- Roberta De Santis & Tatiana Cesaroni, 2016.
"Current Account ‘Core–Periphery Dualism’ in the EMU,"
The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1514-1538, October.
- Tatiana Cesaroni & Roberta De Santis, 2014. "Current account "core-periphery dualism" in the EMU," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 996, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Tatiana Cesaroni & Roberta De Santis, 2015. "Current account “Core-periphery dualism” in the EMU," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 90, European Institute, LSE.
- Tatiana Cesaroni & Roberta De Santis, 2014. "Current Account “Core-Periphery Dualism” In The Emu," Working Papers LuissLab 14114, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
- Tatiana Cesaroni & Stefano Iezzi, 2017.
"The Predictive Content of Business Survey Indicators: Evidence from SIGE,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 75-104, May.
- Tatiana Cesaroni & Stefano Iezzi, 2015. "The predictive content of business survey indicators: evidence from SIGE," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1031, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Tiziana Cesaroni & Stefano Iezzi, 2015. "The Predictive Content of Business Survey Indicators: evidence from SIGE," Working Papers LuissLab 15118, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3d1rt55ran82d86guhaponket6 is not listed on IDEAS
- S. Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008.
"Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches,"
SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 4, pages 31-60.
- Syed Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Working Paper Series 24, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
- S. Adnan H. A. S., Bukhari & Safdar Ullah, Khan, 2008. "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy:Structural and Statistical Approaches," MPRA Paper 9736, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jun 2008.
- Cesaroni, Tatiana & De Santis, Roberta, 2015. "Current Account ‘Core-Periphery Dualism’ in the EMU," CEPS Papers 10317, Centre for European Policy Studies.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002.
"The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
- Yýlmaz Akdi & Serdar Varlik & Hakan Berument, 2018. "Cycle Duration in Production with Periodicity – Evidence from Turkey," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 10(2), pages 24-32, September.
- Günes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2018.
"Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 550-566, July.
- Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson filter," BIS Working Papers 584, Bank for International Settlements.
- Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Discussion Papers 2016-09A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," CAMA Working Papers 2017-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Discussion Papers 2016-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Luis Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2004.
"Using Additional Information in Estimating the Output Gap in Peru: a Multivariate Unobserved Component Approach,"
Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 57-82, January-J.
- Gonzalo Llosa/Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using additional information in estimating output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
- Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2005. "Using additional information in estimating the output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Working Papers 2005-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005.
"The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-01, CIRANO.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2004. "The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012.
"Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
- Xiaoshan Chen & Terence C. Mills, 2009. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using multivariate unobserved components models containing phase shifts," Working Papers 2009_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jul 2010.
- Odia Ndongo, Yves Francis, 2006. "Datation du Cycle du PIB Camerounais entre 1960 et 2003," MPRA Paper 552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2022.
"Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 152-168, January.
- Quast, Josefine & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Reliable Real-time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203535, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Quast, Josefine & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter," IMFS Working Paper Series 133, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Quast, Josefine & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter," Kiel Working Papers 2158, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Robert J. Hodrick, 2020. "An Exploration of Trend-Cycle Decomposition Methodologies in Simulated Data," NBER Working Papers 26750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dupasquier, Chantal & Guay, Alain & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "A Survey of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 577-595, July.
- Yap, Josef T. & Majuca, Ruperto P. & Park, Cyn-Young, 2010.
"The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications,"
Discussion Papers
DP 2010-11, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
- Park, Cyn-Young & Majuca, Ruperto & Yap, Josef, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 45, Asian Development Bank.
- Cyn-Young Park & Ruperto P. Majuca & Josef T. Yap, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia : Impact and Policy Implications," Finance Working Papers 23101, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Alain Guay & Pierre Saint-Amant, 2005.
"Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?,"
Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 77, pages 133-155.
- Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 53, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005.
"The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
- Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- de Carvalho, Miguel & Rua, António, 2017.
"Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 185-198.
- António Rua & Miguel de Carvalho, 2014. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," Working Papers w201416, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008.
"Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Sofie Jore, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Working Paper 2006/02, Norges Bank.
- Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
- Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Staff Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.
- Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1996.
"Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?,"
Technical Reports
78, Bank of Canada.
- Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
- Biolsi, Christopher, 2023. "Do the Hamilton and Beveridge–Nelson filters provide the same information about output gaps? An empirical comparison for practitioners," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
- Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
More about this item
Keywords
output gap; business survey data; structural VAR models; forecast ability;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08e30021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.