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When did unsystematic monetary policy have an effect on inflation?

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  • Mojon, Benoît

Abstract

An important stylized fact to emerge from the VAR estimates is that exogenous monetary policy shocks (also labelled unsystematic monetary policy) have a delayed, persistent, hump shaped effect on inflation. I argue that this empirical pattern is fragile. In particular it disappears when one corrects for the effects of large shifts (breaks) in average inflation or examines periods without such shifts (such as the 1984-2004 period). An important consequence is that the hump shaped VAR estimated response of inflation is not appropriate to fit stylised models of the response of inflation around a stable steady state inflation level. JEL Classification: E52

Suggested Citation

  • Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "When did unsystematic monetary policy have an effect on inflation?," Working Paper Series 559, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005559
    Note: 1792986
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    3. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    4. Mandler, Martin, 2010. "Macroeconomic dynamics and inflation regimes in the U.S. Results from threshold vector autoregressions," MPRA Paper 21887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mojon, Benoît, 2008. "When did unsystematic monetary policy have an effect on inflation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 487-497, April.
    6. Mandler, Martin, 2010. "Regime-dependent effects of monetary policy shocks. Evidence from threshold vector autoregressions," MPRA Paper 21215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2010. "The Cost Channel Reconsidered: A Comment Using an Identification‐Robust Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1703-1712, December.
    8. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2016. "Modest macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks during the great moderation: An alternative interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 300-314.
    9. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2016. "Monetary policy shocks and Cholesky VARs: an assessment for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 383-414, March.
    10. Jorge Alberto Fornero & Roque Esteban Montero & Andrés J. Yany, 2017. "Reassessing the Effects of Foreign Monetary Policy on Output: New Evidence from Structural and Agnostic Identification Procedures," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Ángel Estrada García & Alberto Ortiz Bolaños (ed.), International Spillovers of Monetary Policy, edition 1, chapter 3, pages 31-72, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    11. Eric Monnet, 2014. "Monetary Policy without Interest Rates: Evidence from France's Golden Age (1948 to 1973) Using a Narrative Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 137-169, October.
    12. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2024. "Revisiting the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(329), pages 234-259, June.
    13. Mandler, Martin, 2012. "Inflation-regime dependent effects of monetary policy shocks. Evidence from threshold vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 422-425.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation dynamics; Monetary policy transmission; VARs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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